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Middle Tennessee | Sorry guys..
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There’s no fun in losing money short old crop soybeans without complaining about it a little, right? I think the laser flash after the first negative export number one week ago disoriented me. I sold at a bad price, telling myself I would buy back in the hour before the report release. Well that turns out be a day late, and potentially worse. There was also background buzzing noises about the Chinese government selling soybeans. Advising notes–and I think even the wire services–were hitting the 3 million-metric ton Rumor Button, but the announcement today was for one tenth of that. Today’s quarter bump was a classic short chase-out, with commercials selling the rumor (you could see that in the old crop spread), and funds buying the fact.
Aside from all that distracting noise, the price chart tells the history of the successful trade over the last week. I think I see that a little more clearly after a recent post from jpartner (which in retrospect makes my short timing look even more terrible than it turned out to be). The price had seen two bull swings since April, with buyers stepping up at $14.45 on April 11, and $14.60 on April 23. The first swing support failed quietly this week, and then in near silence, the second swing support did its job. I don’t know if there is a technical indicator for elapsed-time for price recoil, but I think the price traded there for about one-minute in solid trade volume.
So this misadventure ends tomorrow before noon. I’ll stick with the popocorn for the report, but here’s my call: With US river ports busy with South American soybeans tonight, we’ll see a massively negative carry out, and limit up.
EDIT...Some of the chart posters may have already pointed this out...I'm a slow learner at times!
Another edit...Changing title to Sellers Denied...But if we get a close tomorrow near the highs, its back to the charts boys!
Edited by LongKC 5/8/2014 22:40
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Soybean Sellers Denied
