| Let's do the ethanol first.. Weekly Ethanol production was down this week on poor weather at.. 868 k bbls per day. | 2013-Oct | 10/04 | 868 | 10/11 | 869 | 10/18 | 897 | 10/25 | 911 | | | | 2013-Nov | 11/01 | 902 | 11/08 | 927 | 11/15 | 904 | 11/22 | 927 | 11/29 | 913 | | 2013-Dec | 12/06 | 944 | 12/13 | 928 | 12/20 | 926 | 12/27 | 913 | | | | | | 2014-Jan | 01/03 | 919 | 01/10 | 868 | | | | | | |
http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=W_EPOOXE_YOP_NUS_MBBLD&f=W Refiner and Blenders net input (domestic demand) recovered to 797 thousand barrels Per Day vs Last weeks marketing year low. | 2013-Sep | 09/06 | 834 | 09/13 | 842 | 09/20 | 852 | 09/27 | 846 | | | | 2013-Oct | 10/04 | 868 | 10/11 | 857 | 10/18 | 851 | 10/25 | 870 | | | | 2013-Nov | 11/01 | 859 | 11/08 | 874 | 11/15 | 853 | 11/22 | 837 | 11/29 | 837 | | 2013-Dec | 12/06 | 826 | 12/13 | 827 | 12/20 | 876 | 12/27 | 808 | | | | | | 2014-Jan | 01/03 | 756 | 01/10 | 797 |
http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=w_epooxe_yir_nus_mbbld&f=w So the stocks.. we got a draw down here at 16,078 thousand barrels | 2013-Sep | 09/06 | 16,269 | 09/13 | 16,178 | 09/20 | 15,613 | 09/27 | 15,509 | | | | 2013-Oct | 10/04 | 15,390 | 10/11 | 15,419 | 10/18 | 15,499 | 10/25 | 14,961 | | | | 2013-Nov | 11/01 | 15,165 | 11/08 | 15,153 | 11/15 | 15,083 | 11/22 | 15,022 | 11/29 | 15,124 | | 2013-Dec | 12/06 | 15,448 | 12/13 | 15,625 | 12/20 | 15,660 | 12/27 | 15,582 | | | | | | 2014-Jan | 01/03 | 16,138 | 01/10 | 16,078 |
http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=W_EPOOXE_SAE_NUS_MBBL&f=W So 868 - 797 = 71 with a stocks draw of (16,078 -16,138 / 7 =) - 9 = 80 thousand barrels per day that went towards exports vs 84 last week. Another good week on the exports. Domestic production was hindered by weather.. ??? 797 domestic + 80 = 877 disappearance vs last week's 840 is better from previous weeks but below the 907'ish number USDA is using.
stocks target of 20,000 by summer driving season - 16,078 = 3,922 / 88 days = 44.57 needed per week.. to get back on track.. need to step it up on the production side again.
fwiw.. "Cheers." |
Export data..
