Our Extension Marketing guy made a comment a few weeks back that caught my ear..

"I'm not sure how NASS got to their prevented plantings number..  When I look at the FSA data it's higher."

hmmm.. well.. let's take another look.  We talked about it here..

http://talk.newagtalk.com/forums/thread-view.asp?tid=417530&posts=9#M3335558

From this link..

http://www.fsa.usda.gov/FSA/webapp?area=newsroom&subject=landing&topic=foi-er-fri-cad

FSA reported that the Sept 2013 # is.. 91,160,336 planted to corn + 267,751 failed = 91,428,087 Planted and failed.  On a different part of the report the Sum of Prevented Acres is 3,572,969. for corn.

On the same Sept Report for 2012.. Planted acres for Corn is.. 93,842,038.  Prevented from Planting last year was only 262,342.

From that.. LAST YEAR's NASS/USDA came up with 97.2 myn acres planted and 87.4 harvested..

So.. 97.2 / 93.8 = 1.03 of FSA #'s on last year.. pretty much tossing PP to the side..

"IF" that holds true this year.. 91.43 x 1.03 = 94.17 vs USDA's 97.4.. about 3.23 myn acres lower. 

So.. "still" 94.17 x .91 = 85.69 harvested x 155  = 13,282 myn bushels... ????

and here..

http://talk.newagtalk.com/forums/thread-view.asp?tid=417298&posts=27#M3334404

The Sept 2013 report is.. 

"clear as mud.."

NOW.. the DECEMBER FSA numbers are out.. http://www.fsa.usda.gov/FSA/webapp?area=newsroom&subject=landing&topic=foi-er-fri-cad and they are a little higher then the Sept up to 92.08 vs the 91.43 we had then still..

92.08 x 1.03 (not everyone is in the program) = 94.84 x .91 (harvested as grain) = 86.31 harvested x 161 (Informa's #) = 13,895 myn bushels.

WASDE http://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/latest.pdf

is at 95.3 planted.. 87.2 harvested x 160.4 = 13,989

So.. bottom line.. There is room for USDA to come DOWN on acres.. per FSA final and yet increase yields.. which depending upon how those adjustments go..??  could hold production steady.. or decrease it.. or increase it if they bump yields over 162.1

"hmmmm" 

(chuckle).. I guess I was a little off on my yields this summer.. "uh-hum" lol.  However, those rains in July August bailed a LOT of people out.. myself included.. not too often that you get 15" in the LH of summer "here."

I think the FSA numbers forcing NASS down could be legit.. could get overwashed with whatever they do to yields.. to get to 14.1 on 86.31 harvested would take.. 163.36.. and we did do 165 before so...???  seems high to me but whatever...