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| Brads By Laws and MJL, too hard for me to follow long threads...especially when some of the bears are sharpening their claws..LOL Man, they are out tonight thick.
So,have a seat-
2013 is the YEAR OF SUPPLY globally-you agree, ja. Everyone agree, ja?
The global grain reserves when all said and done will only have U.S. adding less than two days to global consumption leading ole Gottlieb to conclude that
2014 will be YEAR OF DEMAND. Simple math.
Remember, I follow global market and remind many times here (I hope I did) that we are in a new market-global market now.
Let me explain... old market say the size of what we produced determined food pricings. This market I refer to means global production as it relates to food demand. This is what now is determining prices, ja. Think back not so long ago to the food rioting.
You can accept this or reject this, ja and carry on watching December futures...I'm just offering some of you a different view to the markets.
And the view from "bean counters" is the world's grain reserves are auguring down from the past 20 or 30 years historical supplies..
meanwhile, citizens of developing nations have more and more money to spend on food. This "new money" I shall call it is auguring up faster than what we farmers globally can augur out of our combines by way of production. You see 20 to 30 years ago we had 100 days of global grain reserves yearly. Ja, 100 days; this year we have 66 days of global grain reserves. The powers to be say that with globally higher yields this year we pick up additional 4 days of world consumption to grain reserves. And get this, with US additional corn harvested would amount to less than 2 days of additional global grain consumption. From that vantage, I can't see further collapsing of prices like so many bears here are feeding on. You really think 4 additional days of world consumption would make that much difference on a short global supply situation like we've just experienced. GLOBALLY. Maybe this explains ethanol mandate policy change...
So all this hysteria on NAT with talk of $2-3 corn, or planting all soys to cut costs, or simply NOT PLANTING-is rather short sided. I'm looking down the tunnel and seeing some light. Anybody else see a few rays?
Gottlieb
Edited by Gottlieb 11/19/2013 22:17
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2013 YEAR OF SUPPLY / 2014 YEAR OF DEMAND
