|
|
1. the crisis: we had in recent years major structural change in the sector, which significantly altered the cultural profile and alcohol industry's corporate energy, with the entry of powerful foreign groups as well as the arrival of the oil industry. Unfortunately two to three disastrous cane harvests have prevented these changes resulted in the desired effect. The hardest time of crisis was no doubt this crop that now ends. This is because the sector came from an extremely difficult year, operational and financially, with a huge crop failure. With this, the "crossing the bridge" that occurred in this crop was complicated but served to many teachings.
2. the 2013/14 season: will still be a difficult year in this crop and some companies that are in financial difficulty will have to take a radical path of selling or closing not to "break". However a course greater harvest will bring opportunities for "out of the hole" for companies that are professionalized and prepared for a new time. The first figures for the production of sugar cane in South Central, although premature, pointing to a rise (against about 535 million tons that were processed in this crop) to the level of 580 to 590 million tons.
3. prices and results: we will start the season with low prices, particularly for sugar, where the NY stock exchange must be between 18 and 21 cts/lb, all running within the expected in the global market. The great expectation of a better year is assured of an increase in the price of fuel, particularly gasoline, which will bring the possibility of adjustment of the values of both the anhydrous ethanol as the hydrated. In the case of sugar, a not-so-improbable Real depreciation, would assist the revenues from export sales. The world is with a fairly high sugar stock, due to a fall in demand caused by the economic crisis and good productions in other countries, particularly India and Russia. This may not be repeated this year, resulting in a gradual increase of prices of Brazilian sugar. The sugar cane production is likely to increase, even as a result of proper replanting, held this year, as well as input from some new areas that have replaced the culture of orange in the State of São Paulo in Brazil.
4. the industry and the Government: the Government can contribute to the industry giving you greater security in terms of regulation. This ranges from the most obvious point that refers to the PNA and its policy on use of ethanol fuel, to the complex issue of rural land acquisition by foreign companies. Direct participants in the industry, sugar mills, cane producers and capital goods industry has to unite once and for all to make a joint effort in terms of institutional representation. The sector needs to recover its credibility, as a matter of urgency, to attract investments. The BNDES does their part, it is good to say. Credit lines were intended for planting and replanting of sugar cane and ethanol storage for the competitive cost. The big problem is that these lines are passed on by commercial banks that require trade-offs in terms of guarantees that most of the industry is not in a position to offer.
5. the future: the sugar remains the cheapest food source of energy in the world. Ethanol is a clean fuel and we already have a fleet of flex-fuel cars needed to supply many times greater than our production capacity. Cogeneration of electricity from biomass will be a reality sooner or later. The industry is if professionalized quickly and with an interesting level of concentration in strong hands. What else do you need for this sector to be successful? Persists, is our response.
-The views expressed in this environment are the sole responsibility of the author and do not necessarily represent the position of Agrolink Portal.
Agrolinkfito | Agromáquinas | Opportunities | Quotes | News
Columnists | Events | Sign up | Agrotempo | Fairs and Photos | Videos
Ip: 66.249.73.82 Cod: -1 Est: -1 Cid: -1
Follow the Agrolink also on the following sites
Twitter Orkut
| |
|
1/25/13-00:00 (Brazil) Sugar cane-some thoughts
