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| "We will have an oversupply in the middle of the year" sums it up pretty well.
Gottlieb
On Monday, oil was quoted at $ 58,38 the sack; permanence of high values depends on the quality of the product
With the expectation of producers of Paraná to the beginning of the harvest of soybeans in the coming weeks, also started the speculation if the oil price will continue at these higher levels in the first half of 2013. According to data of the Department of Rural economy (Overall) of the Department of agriculture and food supply in the State of Paraná (Seab), closed the last quarter of last year with an average of $ 67 for the sack of 60 kg. During 2012, the best was the price of September-with lock in $ 72,92 to sack. The annual average was $ 59,41, elevation of 41% compared to 2011, when he took in $ 42,08. On Monday, soybeans were being sold in the State to $ 58,38 the sack.
According to the Economist of Eral specializing in soy, Marcelo Garrido, at the beginning of the year it is natural that the product will suffer negative oscillations. That's because the proximity of the harvest, which should start in late January or early February at the latest, causes still is cloudy the scenario on the quality of the product, as well as the whole issue of supply and demand on the market. "It is difficult to stipulate a percentage (to drop) now, our expectation is that the January rain without interfering the harvest in the State," says Gaffney.
Last year, different factors have caused soybeans exceeded the R $ 70. The prices in the country benefited from crop failure in the United States, in addition to the drought that hit some Brazilian States, mainly in the South of the country. "The soybean market is extremely swinging. Last week, for example, there was a fall in prices after China decided to review contracts for American soy ", notes the Economist.
For the 2012/13 season, Overall, based on numbers of last December, believes that the production will turn around 15.27 million tons, up 41% in comparison with the previous harvest, which suffered difficulties due to the dry climate. Already the planting area ended up in 4.6 million hectares, an increase of 5%. The updated numbers should come out at the end of this month. "I believe that this year we will not have any more problems with the drought. The harvest will be full both in Brazil and in South America. We will have to examine now what will be the quality of this product available. "
According to the Overall specialist, oil prices should continue for at least the first half of 2013. Another important factor is that at least 35% of the crop is already marketed in Paraná, with prices caught in high levels. "We will have an oversupply in the middle of the year, but will depend on how the American crop. In this first half, certainly we will not have any dramatic swings in the values of marketing ", complements Garrido.
Victor Lee
Edited by Gottlieb 1/15/2013 08:35
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1/15/2013 (Brazil) Soys should maintain good prices in the first half
