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ADM yield est this am
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northmofarm
Posted 7/26/2012 10:51 (#2506654)
Subject: ADM yield est this am


corn 125 and beans 39 (if we start getting rains). Looks like we should be going up. Dollar down and stock market up?????
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buford
Posted 7/26/2012 11:05 (#2506677 - in reply to #2506654)
Subject: RE: ADM yield est this am


IMO, that's the scenario that will be played out. Finally the realization that abandoned acres will be much larger, the dollar will top out because the Fed has painted themselves in a corner, and yes there is demand destruction but it is lagging the the drop in the crop destruction. Somebody should be taken to the woodshed for artificially holding prices down this spring. We ALL will be worse off for that.
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Bonpas
Posted 7/26/2012 12:57 (#2506823 - in reply to #2506677)
Subject: Re: ADM yield est this am


SEIL		Who should be "Taken to the woodshed"? Were you buying millions of bushels this spring on the CBOT? If not, should you be taken to the woodshed? Should I? as I was not a buyer either until about 5 weeks ago? Should China as I am sure they have been or will be caught off guard? Bonpas SEIL
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buford
Posted 7/26/2012 14:37 (#2506976 - in reply to #2506823)
Subject: Re: ADM yield est this am


If endusers wouldn't have been led to believe that corn was going much lower they would have prepared accordingly. And yes, I did have a
larger than normally accepted drawdown in my account but I am not bitter about that and that wasn't the purpose of my statement. Why in the
world would you side with the USDA on this? Unless I am completely misunderstanding your comeback there may be a job waiting for you in
Washington. Don't tell me there wasn't a lot of endusers hurt by their tactics and will eventually hurt the grain producer down the road. Period.
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Bonpas
Posted 7/26/2012 20:48 (#2507461 - in reply to #2506976)
Subject: Re: ADM yield est this am


SEIL		You got the wrong guy if you think I would be siding with the USDA. I use my eyes and ears to estimate yield. What the USDA predicts has never and will never have any bearing on how I buy or sell grain. Those guys are mostly either ones that have failed farming or are their kin that couldn't make it in the game I play.

I don't believe it's the USDA's job to even put out an estimate and wish they never would. At bare minimum thay should start the year with a "zero" and only add to the yield estimate after they are pretty sure we will harvest another 10 bpa after each soaker. If a private company needs an estimate they should/can find a way to get them one.

Here's to not respecting the USDA but also not blaming them for the situation about to unfold. Bonpas SEIL
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ehoff
Posted 7/26/2012 11:07 (#2506680 - in reply to #2506654)
Subject: Re: ADM yield est this am


Central Missouri		Linn Group at between 110 and 120. 1.20 new crop crush margins in beans and we are the only soybean game on earth for exports until Feb. Expect s.a. bean acres up 14% and corn acres up 7%. Very dry in thye black sea crop areas. Pork producers petitioning govt for relief from low feed grain supplies. Pork processors stuffed with sows and early hog movement.

Edited by ehoff 7/26/2012 11:09
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northmofarm
Posted 7/26/2012 11:25 (#2506700 - in reply to #2506680)
Subject: Re: ADM yield est this am


Suppose to be a Senator bring a bill today lowering the RFS based on the amount of corn produced. We will see how that goes. Does not make much sense. If you do something to lower corn prices the e plants will suck up corn even faster. You can't just order half the eplants to stop production. Can you?
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Tara Farms
Posted 7/26/2012 11:30 (#2506706 - in reply to #2506700)
Subject: well since you can force somebody to buy it


Red River Valley		I guess you could force somebody to not produce.

but my guess is that if you take away the forced buyers the rest will take care of itself.
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ehoff
Posted 7/26/2012 11:45 (#2506722 - in reply to #2506706)
Subject: Re: ADM yield est this am


Central Missouri		Pork producers are gonna ask for a relaxation of the rfs standard.
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northmofarm
Posted 7/26/2012 11:53 (#2506732 - in reply to #2506722)
Subject: Re: ADM yield est this am


If it drives down the price of corn won't that make the profitable plants burn up more? Or will it cause the price of ethonal to drop?
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Tara Farms
Posted 7/26/2012 12:03 (#2506747 - in reply to #2506732)
Subject: northmo - I do not know the answer


Red River Valley		as to what it would do -- Thats the Job of the Freemarket -- If the refiners are truly making money blending this stuff into lower grade gasoline for economic reason's than they should demand ( through pricing ) that it get's produced which means $8.00 corn can be burned for energy and guess what I good with that.

It would also get me to buy shares in the best of bred ethanol companies.
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BuckMassey
Posted 7/26/2012 12:00 (#2506744 - in reply to #2506722)
Subject: Re: ADM yield est this am


End users drive me nuts when they ask for cheaper grains with government intervention.................. Did we not have 5 dollar corn in early June? Risk management goes both ways and the market would be better served if buyers used the tools available!
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Tara Farms
Posted 7/26/2012 12:05 (#2506750 - in reply to #2506744)
Subject: Re: ADM yield est this am


Red River Valley		I don't get it either buck don't they know government intervention ( the Mandated use of Ethanol ) is only to be used to raise prices good god what is wrong with these guy's *******


I know I will get flamed for that one

Edited by Tara Farms 7/26/2012 12:06
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BuckMassey
Posted 7/26/2012 12:16 (#2506765 - in reply to #2506750)
Subject: Re: ADM yield est this am


Nice try Tara but ethanol doesn't need to be made from corn! There is algae , switchgrass , and many other carbon sources. The ethanol mandate is about energy security in this country and ending a total addiction to oil! Better bring a better line if you want to debate me Tara!
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Pofarmer
Posted 7/26/2012 12:20 (#2506773 - in reply to #2506750)
Subject: Re: ADM yield est this am



"There is algae , switchgrass , and many other carbon sources. The ethanol mandate is about energy security in this country and ending a total addiction to oil! "

Teh crazy has arrived. Maybe you can quote costs on some of the "many other carbon sources".
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BuckMassey
Posted 7/26/2012 12:29 (#2506786 - in reply to #2506773)
Subject: Re: ADM yield est this am


I believe Brazil uses sugarcane and Tara suggested we may have ample sugarbeets availble, those numbers will smoke corn. Nobody is going to put good R and D money in developing more ethanol sources if we as society keep threatening to shut it down. Ethanol like any other industry will have good and bad years, the question is will you stand by it or run to foreign countries for your energy?
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IALTO
Posted 7/26/2012 13:26 (#2506867 - in reply to #2506786)
Subject: Re: ADM yield est this am


WC MN		We don't have ample sugar beets for ethanol right now. His comment was misleading. One factory may have an excess THIS YEAR. The goal of that factory is to grow and process the maximum # of tons per year. This year they are on pace for a record crop. Last years was almost 50% less than this yrs forecasted crop. It would be possible to grow more beets if there was a market for them but is a high input, labor intensive, management intensive crop with logistic and storage issues. Sugarcane can be grown on a very small amount of land in the u.s.
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trac8100
Posted 7/26/2012 15:59 (#2507064 - in reply to #2506867)
Subject: Re: ADM yield est this am


EC Kansas		Hawaii, Louisiana and Florida. I am curious what the total potential acres are the yield in gallons of juice. Almost all the acres have been taken out, but I wonder what the potential was/is.
Acres in florida have been sold to convservancies for big bucks, but really how many acres of corn would they displace.
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buford
Posted 7/26/2012 14:40 (#2506981 - in reply to #2506750)
Subject: Re: ADM yield est this am


Tara, you're feeling your oats today!!
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frogfarm
Posted 7/26/2012 16:53 (#2507130 - in reply to #2506750)
Subject: Re: ADM yield est this am


ETOH was mandated by the government to oxygenate the carbon fuel and provide cleaner air/envirnoment. not to raise the price of corn.
You wish to accuse the government of market intervention, but that is not the purpose of the mandate.
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Oliver1
Posted 7/26/2012 14:29 (#2506967 - in reply to #2506744)
Subject: Re: ADM yield est this am



Alton, Ia		Let me get this straight....... 1/3+ of the corn crop is going to a market that has gov't mandated usage, and the production risks of that crop can be insured with gov't subsidies, neither of which exist for livestock feeders, and now you are whining about end users of asking for "government intervention".

Think about it..... sloooooowly if you need to.....

Your post is ridiculous.


Your economics are too. Hog projections in May were for ~$3-4/head profit wean to finish. 80% of the time market declines May to Oct, and we had the earliest planted, best stand corn crop in history. You really think every bushel for the next 12 months or whatever should have been bought then????

If so, then I trust you are 100% unsold for 2011 and 2012
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J. Sheehan
Posted 7/26/2012 17:47 (#2507186 - in reply to #2506967)
Subject: Re: ADM yield est this am


Sunnyside, WA		+1

But don't waste your breathe on this board. Everyone knows end users should have locked up $5-6 corn. I can't believe you didn't see one of the biggest droughts ever hitting the whole country? End users are so stupid!
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McHusker
Posted 7/26/2012 11:58 (#2506740 - in reply to #2506700)
Subject: Re: ADM yield est this am


Nebraska aka the boondocks		It will be interesting to know what a "cooling" effect this would have on planted corn acres, and the dominoe effect it would have on everything else. A series of dry years, followed by lowering of the RFS followed by less acres, etc. etc. If farmers actually received a decent price years ago, there wouldn't be etol. so what do people want, they don't want etol and they won't pay to have a food supply for a rainy day...
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roarintiger1
Posted 7/26/2012 13:18 (#2506853 - in reply to #2506740)
Subject: Re: ADM yield est this am


NW Ohio		"Ample sugar beets"??? Let's see, acres and acres of sugar beets will be grown where? The ground that corn occupies now, that's where......
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bedplanter
Posted 7/26/2012 13:41 (#2506889 - in reply to #2506740)
Subject: Re: ADM yield est this am


southcentral nebraska		the market will take care of itself, higher prices will curb ethanal plants when its needed automatically, so there will be more corn available to livestock feeders. Let it take care of itself.
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Markwright
Posted 7/26/2012 13:44 (#2506892 - in reply to #2506654)
Subject: It's a Half a crop. 85 corn, 20 to 25 beans. nt


New Mexico		.
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ImTheBoss
Posted 7/26/2012 14:54 (#2506998 - in reply to #2506892)
Subject: Haha


SD/ND/FL		I love how this site makes me laugh sometimes
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Markwright
Posted 7/26/2012 13:55 (#2506912 - in reply to #2506654)
Subject: Think 6.5 to 7.5 B bu Total corn, say


New Mexico		85 on 80 to 84 m harvested. Hopefully we'll be suprised w better. ADM and others incl usda HAVE to over state now. It buys em "posture" time.
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buford
Posted 7/26/2012 14:50 (#2506995 - in reply to #2506912)
Subject: RE: Think 6.5 to 7.5 B bu Total corn, say


Yeah, I suppose it does buy them some "posture time". I maintain that whoever's decision it was to manipulate the numbers should be give some "pasture" time.
I think their "intentions" were good, but it isn't supposed to be their job to do that. Their job is to report it as it is. Buford
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jackballins
Posted 7/26/2012 16:59 (#2507141 - in reply to #2506912)
Subject: RE: Think 6.5 to 7.5 B bu Total corn, say


NC IA		after the wind damage last night, and the hail damage..... Im starting to wonder if we dont go there Mark. was just SURE we were going to harvest over 10BB. Now, after last night, very concerned.
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Markwright
Posted 7/26/2012 18:31 (#2507261 - in reply to #2507141)
Subject: RE: To much heat, not enough to no h20, and it


New Mexico		extended North thus hurt the garden of eden stuff in ia, mn, sd, ne.

If not for the past 3 weeks, mn had a 190 avg going ( maybe 140 today )
ia burned late too on their big corn northern counties, was 200+, now maybe 140 and won't do that if the nw 1/4 is totaled in.
nw 1/4? maybe 120 now on that not chopped ( the chopped stuff is 25 to 70 bu corn not in the harvested totals this fall ).
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