Interesting discussion this morning with the email group..

Lucky dogs in Minnesota and Ohio got rain yesterday.. an inch plus.. so "back in the game."

The rest of us.. well.. 107 here yesterday.. and ditto the forecast for the next 7...  "wonderful."  Everyone is doing yield checks.. Illinois boys.. are hanging tough.. at maybe 75 bu.. some 100+ fields but not enough.. gonna be tough for Illinois to make 100 bu state average...???

I was jumping up and down about my.. "well if it doesn't die first.." dryland estimate of 25 bu per acre.. YABBA DABBA DO!!!  (Think I need to line up some trucking...???)  But our irrigated is hanging on.. maybe 175.. maybe 180.. maybe not if we stay at 107...???  but we're past pollination..

"Hold on BABY.. HOLD ON!!!"

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vbpJ2FeeJgw&feature=relmfu

Then we got to talking about how droughts seem to be broken by floods.. story from the old timers here are the 50's were 2 droughts with a flood in between.. ditto the 70's.. I believe 80/81 was like this year.. ditto 83.. but 82 was a bumper crop.. so.. riding the waves..

"Ride'em COWBOY!"

and that's what I believe deep down also.. doesn't mean that it's gonna happen.. but golly when this thing breaks.. we're gonna get covered up in grain.. I distinctly remember the mid 80's when the VERY NEXT THING on the agenda after getting the crops in the ground was to GO LOOK FOR STORAGE THAT FALL..  I distinctly remember the conversation walking into the elevator.. and the GM was on cloud nine..

"Hey just found a couple 100 k bushel of storage down in Fort Worth Texas!!  YAl BABY got room to hold the crop now."

The market then was the loan rate.. minus storage.. something like $1.75 - $.35 = $1.40 per bushel for corn..

Golly what are we gonna do with all the $$$ we make..???

So I don't know when.. but.. as things cycle.. this drought also shall pass..  We just got to HOLD ON.. and GET THROUGH IT!!

Etoh bottomed at $1.97 the first of June.. passed through $2.75 yesterday.. headed for..???  Golly I'd guess something over $3.00

Yesterday's etoh output dropped to 802 k b/d...

http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=W_EPOOXE_YOP_NUS_MBBLD&f=W

920, 900, 883, 857, 821, 802...

and now Crude is starting to respond..

$109.77 back in February.. fell to $77 in June.. now pushing through..$90.. headed up.

It looks like we can live with an etoh grind of only 650.. maybe 600 k b/d.. which needs.. 3.5 billion bushels.. hmm.. Ill.. at 100.. and still need 3.5 Billion etoh grind...???

hmm.. gonna be tight.. USDA has room to shave 1.4 from their July grind.. another .5 in feed and exports.. .5 in ending stocks.. plus substitution from other feeds.. wheat.. plus imports.

means we NEED 10.5.. Come on.. baby  HOLD IT!!