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hedgefund farmer
Posted 6/23/2012 10:12 (#2445086)
Subject: I say


i say lets run this corn market up big. Lets see how many punches the ethanol industry and the chinese hog business can take before they get knocked out.
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Pofarmer
Posted 6/23/2012 10:13 (#2445088 - in reply to #2445086)
Subject: Make sure brain is started



before engaging mouth. 

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iseedit
Posted 6/23/2012 10:18 (#2445095 - in reply to #2445088)
Subject: RE: I took it as scarcasm ~



central - east central Minnesota -

Pofarmer - 6/23/2012 09:13

before engaging mouth. 


I took the comments as scarcasm . . .  .  nothing more.
I'm sure most farmers know there is a happy medium price needed to keep producers and endusers profitable and the highs and lows don't generally do it . . . . .

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Illinois Steve
Posted 6/23/2012 10:28 (#2445105 - in reply to #2445095)
Subject: RE: I took it as scarcasm ~


North Central Illinois		He is just trying to get under everybody's skin. Some people don't handle stress well and some people like to prey on those who are stressed. There are a fair number of people on this board that are getting pretty strung out by this drought and Hedgefarmer smells blood and wants to screw with them. Best thing everyone can do is let him babble and not respond to him. There are good crops and bad crops and it will all get sorted out in the end. In the mean time no point in getting all fired up about crap like this.
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thekcirp
Posted 6/23/2012 10:31 (#2445113 - in reply to #2445095)
Subject: Re: I say


NEMO		1st and formost, most farmers had better worry about the profitability in their own operation. 100-120 bushel corn @ current Dec price or insurance rate aint gonna cut it. Some wont yield that much. The ethanol industry, the chinese hogs, the corn flakes eaters, and anyone other end user needs us as much as we need them. It's a two way street. We dont grow it, no price whatsoever matters, cause they have no choice to turn it down. I expect that when corn hits $8-10, if it would, the chinese will stop feeding all those people. As for ethanol, who knows, I dont and neither does anyone else. Oil gets to cheap though and alot of other countries will gobble up the surplus, causing it to go higher. Lots and lots of scenerios hedgefunder. You could be right or wrong.
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hedgefund farmer
Posted 6/23/2012 10:27 (#2445103 - in reply to #2445086)
Subject: Re: I say


I'd say its time to look for a replacement for ethanol. What a terrible business model. Here we are out of corn as many say and it can hardly pay 5.50 to 6 bucks?? How are we supposed to afford all the new paint and the lake homes, 400 rent etc, if they cant keep up their end of the bargain?
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thekcirp
Posted 6/23/2012 10:34 (#2445118 - in reply to #2445103)
Subject: Re: I say


NEMO		Haha. I thought you said we werent outta corn? Or was that under one of your other user names?
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hedgefund farmer
Posted 6/23/2012 10:36 (#2445122 - in reply to #2445118)
Subject: Re: I say


yeah whats all this noise about the basis is widening out?? These plants are just screwing with us IMO> They know the corn isnt out here and are getting into desperation trying to pry it out of the few hands that had it right all along out here IMO
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IALTO
Posted 6/23/2012 10:37 (#2445124 - in reply to #2445122)
Subject: Re: I say


WC MN		You said several plants in your area were all filled up? Now they are desperate?
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hedgefund farmer
Posted 6/23/2012 10:40 (#2445125 - in reply to #2445124)
Subject: Re: I say


they must be ,widened(weakened) basis out 20 cents here. I think it is a reverse physchology move. These plants will do anything and come up with all sort of shenanigans to get those last bushels

Edited by hedgefund farmer 6/23/2012 10:41
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hedgefund farmer
Posted 6/23/2012 10:46 (#2445134 - in reply to #2445125)
Subject: Re: I say


i kinda wonder if some of the managers of these plants in local areas dont get together for steak dinners once a month or so and do coordinated basis gouching as I see it.
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Bengal Stripes
Posted 6/23/2012 11:12 (#2445171 - in reply to #2445125)
Subject: Posted v Paid



Don't know what is happening in the western belt but out here there is a big difference in how much posted bids have fallen and what end users are actually willing to pay. Also it is not unusual to see a pretty good weakening in basis values when the board price rallies 7.5% in a weeks time.

Idling a small percentage of the lower margin ethanol plants is not all that much of a negative. Ethanol prices are likely to narrow in on RBOB and margins will increase for those who can source corn and have better outlets for finished products.

If I were inclined to speculation I would buy Aug ZE and sell Aug RB. If I were a big time gambler and thought the world economy wasn't headed toward depression I would just flat out buy Aug ZE.

When left to their own devices markets will do a fantastic job of rationing whatever supply is available to the endusers who can extract the most value out of the raw material. Prices for input and output are seldom static.
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hedgefund farmer
Posted 6/23/2012 10:59 (#2445155 - in reply to #2445118)
Subject: Re: I say


thekcirp , this is probably gonna be one of the toughest moments to stay strong in the "MARCH TO THE LAST BUSHEL" This is where the misinformation by govt,plants, endusers, and even fellow growers (those saying they have good crops) really heats up. We cant trust anyone out here going forward. Many will capitulate and sell the rallys. And so I invite you my friend to walk side by side with me and navigate through this. A few are left but sadly many felt the pressure or misinformation and sold far to early(Thats ok there are some weak and misinformed out there and we wish em the best). This will be the march for the ages for those who get it right. So am starting a campaign "March To The Last Bushel" . Anyone here interested in joining?
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Donald
Posted 6/23/2012 12:27 (#2445280 - in reply to #2445155)
Subject: Re: I say


west central Ohio		so now you finally want to join ??

what made you change your mind ?
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hedgefund farmer
Posted 6/23/2012 12:32 (#2445289 - in reply to #2445280)
Subject: Re: I say


Well obviously MIZZOU has been a big part of this (changing my mind) and thats why I would like to make him president of this new movement. Don I am taking this as you are in??
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hedgefund farmer
Posted 6/23/2012 12:35 (#2445293 - in reply to #2445289)
Subject: Re: I say


After you see the commercial I posted above on food stamps, it obvious we need political change in this country. We cant fight em military because they are better organized and gunned up. so bout the only left to do is starve em out IMO. If they want to mess with crop insurance or DP's we'll show em when there aint no corn left.
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eddiedry
Posted 6/24/2012 16:43 (#2447183 - in reply to #2445155)
Subject: Re: I say



Wheatley, Arkansas		The march wil be a long one I fear. Southern areas will be adding to the last bushel in a couple of weeks I suspect. Here in the AR delta about 4 weeks and we'll be adding to that last bushel. Our BPA might not be astonomical, but our acres will be harvested lacking a major weather element or a nuclear catastrophy.
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BlackCattle
Posted 6/23/2012 10:52 (#2445141 - in reply to #2445086)
Subject: Re: I say


SC Iowa		2 more limit up days should be sufficent
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1DH
Posted 6/23/2012 12:25 (#2445278 - in reply to #2445141)
Subject: Re: I say


swia		Don't forget what they did to the hog farmers that wouldn't deliver hogs during planting and harvest no matter what price was.
Five years later ,after 4.00 low, you have to call a week in advance and ask them if they will take them, price, by their grade and yield charts.
Greedy isn't always great.
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1DH
Posted 6/23/2012 12:33 (#2445290 - in reply to #2445278)
Subject: Re: I say


swia		me
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snowden
Posted 6/23/2012 12:42 (#2445299 - in reply to #2445278)
Subject: Re: I say


michigan		i am not a expert by no means but everyone keeps saying how these ethanol plants are not making any money and will have to shut down because of it or go idle for awhile why is it the poet plant in michigan has been giving out dividend checks to all of there investors through this whole time of high priced corn over the last several years. if they are so bad off it would not be possible i know of several members of this plant and they have been getting a good return every quarter on there investment. granted they are not getting the monster dividend checks they did when corn was $3.00 but still making good money so all this stuff about the poor ethanol plants going broke and not making enough money i dont buy it. is it they have gotten to gready and when times hit that they are not making the big bucks they dont know how to deal with it or what. i am not trying to start a pissing match here but looking for others thought about this as i know atleast this plant is still making good money even with high priced corn. every quarter the members brag how much money they are making what are your thought on this
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roarintiger1
Posted 6/23/2012 22:33 (#2446113 - in reply to #2445299)
Subject: Re: I say


NW Ohio		I think that every time one of these ultra bears comments on this site it is purely for entertainment purposes only. I guess that I am entertained easily.
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