They are finding some good wheat and some stressed wheat now that they got into the droughty areas from last year. 

http://www.kansas.com/2012/05/02/2319956/kansas-wheat-trek-finds-most-fields.html

Take a look at this palmer index from last year..




http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/drought/2011/8

We have had rains since then and maybe even upwards of normal to above in spots..


http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/drought/2012/3

but the problem (imho) is that we don't have the subsoil reserves.. and now that the wheat is hitting peak water useage.. there's "not much" to draw upon.  We had a good rain event here locally a couple of weeks ago where over the week we got something like 2" but it came over about 4 days of nothing more than 0.65" per day.. good but no runoff.. it's hard to push moisture down into the root zone when all you get are basically mistings.

So far we're sitting at something like 4.5" through March.. I can't access April's data.. but probably another 2.5" so that puts us up to maybe 7" for 2012.. good.. but we only received 11.33" total for 2011.. and that's a heck of a hole to fill..

These pictures tell the story.. a month ago the wheat was looking fine.. but today we are hitting the out of subsoil moisture wall..  As the crop progresses through the droughty areas from last year.. will this continue? 

I do believe Kansas will raise some wheat and as the tour is noting in some cases a very good crop.. we have the acres.. no doubt.. however in some area's especially last year's droughty areas.. the mositure deficits are still showing up.. it's not going to be as good as "it could have been".. for whatever that means.. which looking at yesterday's markets.. apparently isn't much.. "later." 

I really like Jim Shroyer.. I believe he has a good handle.. I haven't heard him yet today.. so that will be interesting.. he was saying that Northern and even North Western Ks "looked good."

(April HRW Wht 2012 004 (Medium).jpg)

(April HRW Wht 2012 005 (Medium).jpg)

April HRW Wht 2012 004 (Medium).jpg (79KB - 115 downloads)

April HRW Wht 2012 005 (Medium).jpg (80KB - 112 downloads)