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| I'd be surprised if basis doesn't tighten aggressively at some point in the next 6-7 months.
In W MN, E ND, NE SD I wouldn't be suprised to see a positive basis again this summer. A much smaller overall crop in '11 due to acres and yield (20 bpa smaller on average IMHO) and the local end users have been hungry for corn.
If the futures market doesn't offer any nice rallies my thesis may prove false as farmers will hold onto their corn hoping for $6.50+ cash corn.
EDIT: I've been an aggressive futures/HTA seller though as I don't think the odds favor a 3rd poor crop in a row, 94 million acres seems likely to me with a lot of PP acres drying out this fall (a 2.0 billion bushel carryout isn't out of the question with 160+ yield), and most importantly $6 cash corn is just too darn good to turn down!
Edited by NDContrarian 12/20/2011 20:47
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In my neighborhood, I'm a basis bull
