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Moorhead, MN | Weekly ethanol production came out today at 915k bbls per day. That's the 3rd highest ever. That's likely partly responsible for sending the market sharply higher.
However, with 12 weeks remaining in the marketing cycle we need 995k of daily production to meet the USDA's estimate of 5.0 bushels of ethanol usage (using a conversion rate of 2.8 gallons/bu). I wouldn't be surprised to see the USDA cut the Ethanol demand number tomorrow. If they cut demand by 100mm bushels (which is approximately the current cumulative shortfall), this will allow us to absorb a 1 bushel yield reduction without changing carryout.
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Strong Ethanol Production - But We're Still Lagging USDA's Estimate
