. WET PATTERN  TO   SPREAD INTO  MIDWEST  BY END OF THE MONTH...   SOME HINTS  1st  WEEK OF  APRIL  MAY TURN   UNSEASONABLY COLD ...

HIGH  RESOLUTION   / DETAILED   RADAR


SHORT TERM    (next  60 hrs )  MARCH 21-22

The morning map shows  the  cold  High  that yesterday was over the Midwest   is now over  New England  and moving out to sea. Winds have become  S and SW.  The  showers we see over the northern ECB  are  part of  a warm front  surging north. This front runs from   SD   across  southwest IA into  Northern MO and lower ILL.

 Weather models  show   the large Upper Low has formed   over southern  California.    To the northern a   weak cold front   will sweep into the   Great Lakes and Midwest  overnight into Thursday   morning with  decent  showers and storms.  Over    eastern IA   and eastern MN  WI  MI ILL  northern MO  IN and OH  coverage will be  60% or so of 0.15 to 0.65".  

However  overnight the  weather models show a  SIGNIFICANT  change.   This Thursday cold front  stalls    in a  WEST to  EAST direction  over the Midwest  Thursday night and   Friday. Low pressure develops on the front which causes a new   heavier  area of rain to  form over  northern MO    into   central ILL ...65% coverage  of  0.25  to 1.25"  and this rain moves into   much of IND  and  central OH  Friday night ,

The air mass behind this front is of  Pacific origin so it will NOT  have a lot of cold air behind it. Meanwhile  the Upper Low over  southern California  will slide east  spreading showers and storms into   AZ  and NM  and western Texas  by  Thursday  and Thursday  Night. 

  FORECAST  RAINFALL THURS 7AM CDT to FRI 7AM CDT



MEDIUM   RANGE     MARCH 23 - 27

In the Medium range   the  weather models continue to move this upper Low from  the Southwest States    northeast across the southern and central Plains.  This will be the second rain event   but  it does NOT look quite  as wet as it  did  yesterday for the  HRWW areas  ( Hard  Red Winter  Wheat ) .  Right now 50% coverage of 0.25 to 1.25    March  23-24   seems about right.

 East of this system   (which  would be most of Midwest as well as the Delta and the Deep South)  ... temperatures will run very warm for the end of March with 70s to near 80  common .  Most of weather models take   this Low   up into the western  Great Lakes but as it does  it  weakens significantly so the rain shield over the WCB  and Great Lakes falls apart .  The European model has no rain from the system over the ECB  March 26-27 while the American models are showing light rainfall amounts with something like 40-50% coverage


DAY 3 RAINFALL FORECAST

DAY  4-5    RAINFALL


WHAT COULD  GO WRONG   There   increase in the rains  on Friday  and Friday  afternoon over the  Midwest -- say  from I-70s South-- is  dependent  on this cold front  stalling. If the front does NOT do so... rainfall forecast will be much lighter.     The  Upper Low over    the  Lower Plains will weaken  as it moves towards   WI

 

WEEK 2    MARCH   28 - APRIL 4

This is a stormy looking  week 2  forecast.  The   model   data   remains very strong that  a  SERIES   of  major systems  are going to be   crashing into the   West coast  then moves into the Plains and Midwest making for a   very  wet pattern.

The  1st Low crashes  into the West  coast of CONUS and develop into a huge storm for the Rockies and West Coast  3/27    that moves inland  3/28.    This system Will bring significant rain to California and the Great Basin at lower elevations and heavy mountain snows to central and northern California mountains as well as much over the northern and central  Rockies. In response to this huge system over the western US.... the   Ridge  over the southeast stays very strong SO much of eastern Plains the Deep South and Midwest stays warm and for the time being dry  from  3/25 to  3/29.    

DAY 6   we can see the heavy snow over much of the interior portions of the Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_slp_144m.gif

 The BIG Rockies LOW  will   move into the    western Dakotas   then into   southern Central  Canada  by the  29th...  and drags its cold front into the  Plains . rainfall amounts over  eastern MT   eastern WY  SD ND  MN   Lower  MB  could be 1 to 3 inches  with 75% + coverage  -- IF THIS MAPS  are  correct!!! 

Day 7  the Big LOW moves into the   ND and   western MN... with heavy rains
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_slp_168m.gif

Day8  that Big Low moves into  Manitoba  with  SNOW and   heavy rains along the cold front   moving into the  WCB
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_slp_192m.gif

 This Low's   cold front will stall over the  Plains and  Midwest   as  more BIG Pacific systems follow  .... the next one   3/31 - 4/1    followed by VERY cold   early  April temps  
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_slp_240m.gif