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| A lot of farmers were forced to exit Friday.. Who is left to sell?
This has been the warmest winter in record, with no signs of slowing down. Which means possible early planting.
If we get planting started early we will likely not get a normal planting scare. A planting scare is what rallied this market in 2019 when the funds were almost as short as they are now.
However with the funds as short as they are, it would not take much to get a mini rally here. I could see us making a small bounce and the funds lighten up their position a little.
Keep in mind that we have lost nearly a buck since harvest in the corn market, a normal corrective bounce could be a full Fibonacci retracement of 61.8%.
After that I would not be surprise to see more pressure on this market if we have early planting. After that, the drought talk could get very real. Most long term forecasts I’ve seen are pointing hot and dry with an already dry winter. I could see us potentially getting one of those rallies similar to last year with that “2012” hype. Whether it comes to fruition or is a selling opportunity remains to be seen.
Harvest in Brazil is moving along very fast. When you harvest early doesn’t that typically mean it is dry? Which won’t affect the bean harvest, but is not ideal for their second corn crop should it remain dry.
In todays audio we talk about re-ownership in corn
If you have sold corn anytime in the last several months. Now isn’t the worst time to consider re-ownership.
Because prices are lower than where they were when you made the sale
If you are going to want to re-own it when it starts going up.. now would be a much better time. There is nothing wrong with keeping your books closed, but you do not want to chase it, after the fact.
Some guys like that insurance to help them sleep at night if they sold corn and it starts going up a bunch.
We talk more about this and strategies you can utilize in todays audio
Listen Here: https://txt.so/dfSDB1
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Market audio comments: re-ownership strategies & drought talk
