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Western SD | Hello NAT! Below are a few questions for the experts regarding the HRS market:
1)
My understanding is that Saskatchewan is in the same boat as ND in terms of odds of growing something this year, and Alberta is in the same boat this year as Montana or slightly worse?
2)
Canada and the USA together comprise WHAT % of the world’s HRSW supply? I’ve heard over 75%, but that’s probably not accurate? Anybody know what % of global HRSW is produced in North America?
3)
I wonder if the standard loaf of bread is comprised of:
25% from 15+ Pro of Hard Red
75% from 12- Pro of Hard Red
Understanding that fixed ratio is a big deal if the current forecast holds true.
My understanding is that a single bushel of wheat makes 66 loaves of bread, and only a part of that bushel needs to be 15% protein or higher, so using price to ration back demand for 15 Pro Hard Red is next to impossible.
4)
Is it true that the smaller % of the total loaf required to come from 15 Pro Kernels, the more those rare kernels get to be worth in a physical shortage? Kinda like micro-chips holding up the sale of a new combine?
5)
In 2017 a TON of HRW in Western SD ran 17 PRO which is a first, and helped fill the HRS gap. But 2017 was a complete production dream compared to this year. I’ve never seen HRW run over 15 except for that year. ND’s average HRS crop was in the 30’s in 2017, which is not that bad. This year it could be single digits? My question is:
Didn’t Saskatchewan bail out the millers looking for 15 Pro Hard Red in 2017?
6)
Durum is not traded by speculators. In March 2008, when HRSW went to $25, Durum went a lot higher than that.
Proso Grain Millet is currently $15/bushel (normally $3 or 4) and no speculators trade it.
7)
Whenever there is a price spike in TRADED commodities, everyone blames it on speculators, but what if it’s the other way around? How come stuff that speculators don’t trade is spiking way higher due to this drought? It’s not like price is relevant to the ultimate consumer, so is it possible that speculators are so worried about their day to day account balance that the market doesn’t go to rationing back demand properly at a time like this when the hand-writing was already on the wall a month ago?
I mean, why is Spring Wheat worth less than half what a 50 lb bushel of Millet is, when normally it’s the other way around?
Edited by Claim Jumper 6/4/2021 15:31
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