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SE Arkansas | Market participants today focused on the 6/10 bushel drop in the USDA Corn yield estimate. This was important and hopefully the production estimate has topped out. Unfortunately, the USDA lowered feed use by 25 Milllion Bushels. I was concerned about this number, and I believe this reduction will be the last. We are feeding a lot more hogs, chickens, and cows than a year ago. Exports were raised 75 Million Bushels. This puts the 18/19 export estimate 37 Million Bushels over the 17/18 final export number. After 4 weeks of the 18/19 marketing year, we have already shipped 60 Million Bushels more than the same 4 weeks last year. Export Sales have grown even more than that. Given the extreme shortage of worldwide corn stocks and an estimated 1.5 Billion Bushel growth in demand, I believe our exports will ultimately be 400 Million Bushels over last year. This will lower the carryout to 1.4 Billion Bushels. This represents a 10 percent Stocks to use ratio and a $4.50 early 2019 price with a much tighter basis. A large crop in the US, Brazil, and Argentina will not meet worldwide demand growth. | |
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Bullish, Bullish WASDE. Your Corn is Gold.
