World Crude Oil supply still exceeds demand by about 1.5 myn bbls per day according to some..

( http://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/How-Soon-Could-A-Sustained-Oil-Price-Rally-Occur.html )

the IEA reported supply would exceed demand by about 1.5 million b/d in the first half 2016. The IEA admitted world oil demand grew in 2015 at one of the highest rates this century, but did not foresee this level of demand growth being sustained in 2016, despite the most attractive (read low) fuel prices since 2003. The IEA recited the global economic slowdown that has dominated headlines so far this year as the basis of its pessimism (despite what appears to be contrary data coming out of China). 

However, given the break in prices and the corresponding cuts in production projects as a result..  S & D is expected to come more in aglignment by the end of 2016..

Russia made hints yesterday that they would consider working with OPEC producers to shore up supply and spur higher prices..

( http://www.cnbc.com/2016/01/27/russia-wants-to-talk-to-opec-about-output-cuts-to-bolster-oil-price.html )

Russian officials have decided they should talk to Saudi Arabia and other OPEC countries about output cuts to bolster oil prices, the head of Russia's pipeline monopoly said on Wednesday, remarks that helped spur a sharp rise in world prices.

Oil futures surged more than 5 percent after the comments by Nikolai Tokarev, head of oil pipeline monopoly Transneft, which gave the strongest hint yet of possible cooperation between the top non-OPEC oil producer and the cartel to try to reverse a record glut.

Brent crude rose by over $2 to $32.95 a barrel, after a session low of $30.83. It was also boosted by U.S. demand following a blizzard.

But there was still a long journey from starting discussions to actual cuts by Russian oil producers, with many of them saying reducing output was technically very difficult and could lead to Russia losing market share to its competitors.

Tokarev said oil executives and government officials meeting in Moscow on Tuesday had reached the conclusion that talks with OPEC were needed to shore up the oil price.

It's probably too early to worry much about cutbacks.. We're still pretty flush in stocks.. maybe make another stab at the lows.. but it does appear that we are making progress on carving out a bottom..   I didn't get filled on all my diesel fuel orders the other day.. missed the bottom so far by about $.02.. so will remain patient for more opportunities to get filled.. but by this summer...???  Get into the summer driving season.. and as the gap of excess production narrows.. upward price pressure could return...  ??

It will at some point.. 

Today.. Tomorrow.. next week.. this summer.. Next year.. longer...???

We've popped Crude Oil prices with the change in futures months about $6.00 a bbls.. the pattern has been for the nearby to make a new low as the next month goes off.. expect weakness until the pattern changes.. but when it does it could pop pretty good..  Again some are looking for $60 crude by the end of the year..  (uhum.. just like last year..)

"It's a process.."

probably a couple more curve balls yet to come...  ??

As we transition to post El Nino..  I guess I still expect one more big corn crop before we have to worry much about shortages..?? but 2017 could get interesting..

Ethanol exports were pretty good this week..  I'll update.  Margins still suck... which has led to production cut backs.. 
 
"I could be wrong."