Heard Chip talk about this on the radio this afternoon so had to look it up..  What does Nov and Dec of 1982, 1987, 2010 and 2015 all have in common?  Wet El Nino periods.

What followed?

Pretty rough production periods.. 83, 88, 2011/12 and ??? 2016..??

( http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/en... )

Look at page 21 for the history..  We've talked about this before.. doesn't mean it ALWAYS goes down that way.. but then flip over to page 23 and 24.. Odds of a return to La Nina exceed the odds of a continued El Nino by July August and September..

Wet spring.. plant in the mud... fry's by August...???

If history is any guide..