It's been awhile since I put a KC Wheat chart up so I figured I would throw one up today.

We've been waiting for the hagopian (that I wish I had seen before I bought my wheat back) on the green fork to be fulfilled. When price reached the lower green dotted line, this happened so price has fulfilled it's hagopian objective for the green fork. This lifts some weight off, but there is still the hagopian for the blue fork to deal with.

As far as I know, there is nothing that says a hagopian has to hit. I believe if price were to pull up above the middle line of the blue fork (median line or ML), the hagopian would no longer be something we were looking at.

Also, since the blue fork is facing upward, we can hit that blue line without going lower. If we're going to hit it, we could go sideways or we could go up and then back down and hit it sometime in March without changing anything from a structural standpoint.

Speaking of structure, that's why I don't think we go straight down to fulfill the blue hagopian right now. I'm not saying we can't, but from a structural standpoint, we have already penetrated the lows of 2009. I don't understand structure like I should still but jpartner was saying that when price failed to make new lows (compared to the 2006-2007 lows) in 2009, the 2009 lows were the magnet that was going to weigh price down until the 2009 lows were compromised. That's the reason we haven't been able to make new highs again since 2009 to 2010. Price had a job and that job was to breach the 2009 lows so no amount of bullish news could break the old highs.

Now that those lows (represented by the red dotted line) have been breached, there is likely a significant position there protected by the whales. I guess I think it's unlikely that we go down there, and if we do it's because the recent lows aren't really structural like I think they are. If they are structural, we will either go sideways or up, and we've seen the lows for quite some time. If they are not structural, well, I have no idea;)

Looking back, 2015 should have been fairly easy for me after I made the decision to sell everything in the $5.80 range during harvest in July. When price dropped below the lower solid line (lower median line or LML) of the green fork, I should have recognized the hagopian and stayed short. I don't remember what I was looking at then but sometime around August 10th (a long time after the hagopian rule had been initiated) I bought my wheat back. It was a pretty simple deal and I'm not sure what I was thinking then. Anyway, price continued down to puncture the 2009 lows and the price action since that time has me believing there is a lot more potential upside right now in Kansas City wheat than there is downside. I think in the worst case scenario we could go down to something like $4.18 or so. In the best case scenario? I'm not even sure where that may be, but I'll take that one day at a time.