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Buxton ND | "FCStone pegs next year's Brazil soybean crop at 100.9 mmt, 5% above this year's record crop. Soybean acres up 4.4 percent."
This is a MAJOR fundamental that anyone raising beans needs to be aware of. Yep I'm sure FCSTONE's number is just a pipeline dream,,, my number is a tad higher 102 mmt. As our soybean price is in the toilet,,, Brazil's is roughly 33.50 new crop,,, 34-35.00 was the highs of 2011/2012, this as their planters sit at the ready roll at the starting line. We've learned first hand what high prices have done to planted acres,,, do you REAL-LY think it any different in SA ? ? ? As "they" plant more hectares, it takes that much bigger of a weather problem to effect market price.
YES their productions cost are UP,, 16% higher as to comment last week on Market Rally. Their beans prices are UP give or take 50%
Now some well say just another one of Sat's doom and groom bearish posts. If you say your a fundamental trader,,,,,,,,,, how on earth can one ignore this fundamental gentlemen ? ? ? ? ?
Now I have a hard believing we're gonna hit USDA's bean yield of 46.9 but with the number above I really don't care if the yield is 47 or 42.
New crops sales to China to date are 56% behind y-o-y,,, source was yesterday, Brain Greta on Market Rally. This subject has become the buzz word on Market Rally the last 2 weeks,,, I have a MAJOR PROBLEM with Chip Flory on this very subject as their a good 2 months late and $1.50 short on *****YOUR PRICE OF SOYBEANS***** addressing this issue. | |
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Fundamentals REAL style
