I'll kick off your weekend energy reading enjoyment with this piece.. 

Opinion: Why The Crude Oil Doom-Merchants Have Got It All Wrong

 It gives a good Macro Policy view of how we got here.. aka US policy to contain Putin.. coupled with dynamics in the Middle East..  However with. 

Shale production decline is a reality. Overall decline rates in the Bakken Shale are around 50%, Eagleford Shale 55% and the Permian is around 25% and the US rig-count has now fallen by over a half. So why have we not witnessed anything yet?

Well the answer to that is a mixed and somewhat cloudy one. Delays in completing some wells are clouding the decline picture as are delays in actual hard production data. The answer to the delays in both cases is around 4 months. We have to wait around 4 months to get the actual data for what is happening now, and quite often wells are not completed until some 4 months after they have been spudded.

..

Estimates of US Oil production declines of over 500,000 bbl/day by the end of Q4 this year have been touted. Factor in declines from the rest of non-OPEC supply and the current over-supply situation will not last long.

Etc.. the Bears counter with Delayed US completions..

( https://btuanalytics.com/can-us-oil-production-really-fall/ )

Which has been a valid reason.. but if/when we reach the point that producers can see higher prices on the horizon.. they will wait for next year's summer driving season.. and higher returns.

It will be interesting to see how it plays out.. the truth is probably somewhere in the middle.. but even at that.. unless the world falls into a recession.. I would err on the expectation that we'll see higher crude prices by next spring.. possibly north of $70..??

cheers.