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| Current bullish argument would be an increase of exports by 5% of 1.7 billion = an increase of 85 million or greater. On the supply side lets say we have a 45 bushel national average which is a reduction of 2 bpa on 80 million = 160 million reduction in production. Total bullish argument would equate to a 245 million bushel reduction in ending stocks. Current USDA estimate of 450 million less 245 million = 205 million bushels ending stocks. This is not out of the realm of possibility but maybe worse case scenario. The good question would be what price would this scenario produce. My guess would be maybe 11 maximum on the board if we are lucky. Any opinions are appreciated. Looking at the demand for soybeans at the $9 level might be the wild card knowing that we exported 1.7 billion bushels at higher prices. Can the soybean yield be reduced 2 bushels or is that out of the question? I'm thinking the current rally could extend to the 10.50 area but breaking thru 11 would seem irrational and I know irrational is common in todays market. | |
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SOYBEAN DEMAND AND PRODUCTION ESTIMATES
