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Do we REALLY NEED that much storage for this crop?
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JonSCKs
Posted 9/11/2014 08:38 (#4068207)
Subject: Do we REALLY NEED that much storage for this crop?


I'm surprised that my burn rate sheet has not got more attention.. I was in a hurry yesterday so I touched it up some this morning.. so I'll repost it here..

Guys We're BURNING THROUGH on average 330 MYN Bushels of CORN PER WEEK.. that's.. 1,414 myn BUSHELS per MONTH.. and as I note.. we probably got around a 110 myn bushel REDUCTION in 13/14 Carryout coming.. so If we start at 1,150 (my number) that only leaves us 3 WEEKS of corn in store.. Now Granted WE HAVE STARTED in places.. like here.. but we're almost DONE with the dryland.. and it's still gonna be a few weeks before the IRRIGATED comes off.. IF WE'RE NOT STUCK IN A SOYBEAN PROCESSOR LINE.. waiting to dump beanies...

.. Can't DO BOTH!!

The FEEDLOTS here are full.. ALL THREE that I HAULED to this week were 90%+ Full..going FULL BORE on the GRIND!!!  One Stayed open late for us and we Hauled till 10 pm.. just in case it rained.. These guys have been around for awhile and know how things can go.. Meanwhile the NEW PROCESSOR down the road is STILL WAITING for Harvest to START... "You guys harvesting yet?"  lol...

We PROBABLY HAVE LESS THAN A BYN BUSHELS of CORN in the collective BINS across the COUNTRY.. MY SPREADSHEET is probably WRONG.. (but close..) LOOK at the NUMBERS... 

 

JonSCKs91.6         Quarterly  
-1.6900.9282.817014076 June 1st3854  Stocks12/1313/14
     Add    CumulativeSept 1st989821
  Stocks      % HarvestedHarvestedTotalUseStocksDemand Dec 1st803310452
   Totalthat weekbushels     Mar 1st54007008
Week    14076 1982225  June 1st27643854
46  0.00050.0005722321952037     
47  0.00200.00152120581901868     
48  0.00400.0022818961951701     
49  0.00750.00354917512001551  Q 4 useage/wk 
50  0.01200.00456316142151399  20132014 
51  0.01900.0079914972251272     
52  0.02740.008411813912401151  206207 
1 11510.03700.009613512862501036250 26782694 
2  0.050.01051481184280904530    
3  0.070.01752461150315835845 Harvested 
4  0.100.035493132832010081165 prior to   
5  0.150.05704171133013811495 Sept 1st386 
6  0.250.11408278934024491835    
7  0.370.121689413834037982175 3rd wk915 
8  0.500.131830562835052782525    
9  0.640.141971724935068992875    
10  0.790.152111901036086503235 Q 1  useage/wk 
11  0.850.06845949536091353595 20142013 
12  0.900.05704983837094683965    
13  0.950.057041017237098024335 333331.4 
14 98020.970.022821008437597094710 43354308.2 
15  1.000.034221013131598165025 30.80%30.61% 


.
Anyway.. right now.. we PROBABLY only HAVE.. about 900'ish myn bushels of Corn in the bin.. 3 WEEKS of SUPPLY..

and yes we're gonna harvest SOME.. IF it doesn't rain..??  or snow..??

but We're PROBABLY NOT going to get it ALL in before the end of the YEAR.. IN FACT we're PROBABLY NOT going to exceed the PEAK STORAGE point that we did LAST YEAR when DEC 1st Stocks hit 10,452 vs THIS YEAR where MY BURN RATE Sheet hits.... 9,802..  600 myn LESS..

WHY?!?

a) because this year's crop is LATER
b) We're GRINDING MORE CORN.. about 150 myn MORE THIS YEAR per quarter JUST FOR ETHANOL.. plus more for Livestock.. etc..
c) and we HAVE RECORD EXPORTS on the Books for Soybeans.. and we haven't done too shabby for the corn either in Q4 of 13/14..

IT's NOT as BURDENSOME as everyone THINKS it is..

IF YOU DO NOT RAISE A 14,600 crop.. YOU WILL HAVE LESS IN STORAGE THIS WINTER!!! 

WE CAN NOT FILL THE FEEDLOTS.. The ETHANOL PLANTS.. the BEAN PROCESSORS with a SNAP of the fingers.
 
Our Transportation INFRASTRUCTURE IS BEING TAXED TO THE MAX!!! 

When we get the new numbers I'll update later...



Edited by JonSCKs 9/11/2014 09:30
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