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Mascoutah, Illinois | If we were to use 2009 as a benchmark based upon the national yield and try to apply it to 2014, here is what past history is going to tell us.
September 4, 2009
January corn closed @ 3.17. (St. Louis basis was minus 3 cents)
January soybeans closed at @ 9.53. (St. Louis basis was plus 26 cents)
If you were patient and took advantage of the carry in the market how much were you rewarded? Would you believe around a $1.00 a bushel in corn and around 75 cents a bushel in soybeans.
This is what the markets closed at on January 11, 2010 the day before the final USDA REPORT of the 2009 crop year.
January corn closed @ $4.17. (St. Louis basis was six cents)
January soybeans closed @ 10.28. (St. Louis basis was plus 17 cents)
The very next day the January report came out and corn fell 28 cents and eventually bottomed out at the end of June at $3.35. Soybeans fell 31 cents.
Will this same scenario play out five years later with another "big crop" coming? Nobody knows, but if history repeats itself you will need to be completely sold out before the day of the January 2015 report and some upside could be available just like it was five years ago to the day.
Edited by djmcountryboy 9/7/2014 14:15
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Will 2014 markets follow the 2009 markets?
