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Red River Valley | It's the willingness of the Bulls to hold grain that will keep the Market in Check. While small short covering rallies will occur based of the bears being overconfident I have never seen a true bottom take place in an oversupply / undersold market until the Farmer pukes grain onto the market and I have my doubts that this one will end any differently than the previous one's.
Way last Fall early winter I post several different times that this whole market move would be a process not an event and that this market would give the bulls many chances to get long and the Farmer few chances to get sold I still stand by that, yesterdays action has all of the feel of a knee jerk reaction of some body thinking we were lucky to get this chance to buy the bottom. I will stand by my statement that this market is going to give everybody a chance to buy the bottom and some will buy it multiple times.
This reaction low will not be anything more than a bounce IMO and I still feel that I will get my chance to get long corn near $3.93 but again I may be wrong but I am not willing to chase this market above that number and for the record I think we will get a .50 cent rally off that number.
The Rally off the $3.93 number will have the same feel as the August Rally and when you have the Same posters that back in August that were telling everybody how smart they were for not having any new crop sold and still holding a big chunk of old crop, come on this site in early Jan and start to tell everybody how smart they were to be holding that corn and $5.00 is a heart beat away and that $6.00 is a given, well then boys it will be time to unload your unpriced bushels and if you are not of the grow it, bin it, sell it crowd then I would also catch up on some new crop sales could be that new crop will be near $5.00 if the carry stays in the market.
For those of you who think prices are low enough to stop acres you might want to rethink that a bit at the current time I have 7 farm sites or tree claims to clean up so that they can come back into production 3 of these sites are on quarters of ground that have been in crp and the sod is work and full farming will go on next year. I guess I don't see acres falling yet a lot of people are still very optimistic that we are just going through a slight dip and that when the truth about this crop size or the reality of the fact that we will export 2.0 bb of corn hits the market than $6.00 is right around the corner.
My plans have not changed as far as trying to get long this market in both corn and beans but again I will not chase this thing at these levels and if it does not come to me than I will not get long but wait on the rally to make additional sales for 14 | |
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It's not about the confidence of the bears
