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| Several items:
Yes, we are most likely in a blow-off mode. Have not yet seen yesterday's open interest.
Yes, at some point we will witness a deep correction.
Yes, some of us are repeating what we have predicted and speculated the past few months. Still the same market.
Demand is based: profitability of the end use (long term) & cash shorts & futures shorts
Yes, while the stock market may chop around and even rally in the short run, in my view we still have a sharp new low yet to be seen in the next month or so.
Yes, the fed fears deflation. Would sooner risk inflation.
Recognize many on this forum are ahead of the curve, not behind it.
Several risks: in this type of atmosphere..there is usually some individual or firm whose made the big mistake such as the rogue trader of a few weeks ago. Always is...may show up at any time between now & a few months from now.
What action will the Fed & policy makers now assume?
Regardless, whether you believe it, agriculture is repricing a changed demand structure & soon international input costs will accelerate even more, in an inflationary environment to catch up.
The additional big risk, in my view, is China. They are now taking small moves to STIMULATE in contrast to slow down...in response to the economic losses due to the snow storm.
SUGGESTION: HedgeFund.Net provides data & brief into on hedge fund activities.
more later.
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Attempt Rational In an Irrational Period
