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Red River Valley | .319 is the ear weight that USDA assigned for the August report. This is the lowest ear weight that I could find assigned to the August report in the last 20 - 25 years ( did not have any data for anything past that )
This is also the Avg. of the last 5 years which included the 2012 ( lowest ear weight .3036 ) and 2011 ( second lowest .3063 ) and a less than avg. 2010
and USDA methodology requires that they use the 5 year avg. as a plug number so they did.
The average ear weight of summers with a cool pollination period and early fill period is north of .3550 with the heaviest being .3661
so after looking at this Info it was of no surprise that the Market gave up the ghost.
Yes EI is correct in saying that simply throwing out the two worst years would move us back to a 160+ National Yield. let alone think of what it would turn into if you used the high-end of this data.
while I agree with the statement that if we get an early frost the .319 ear weight could become reality the fact remains that the market looks at the USDA number as one that still needs a major weather hit to bring yield DOWN to that level.
and that me boys is why the market correct after what was as bullish a report as USDA could throw at this baby.
Well that and the fact that farmers are not selling | |
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And the winner is Ethanol Insider
