From the AWS about the current pattern concerning the ENSO cycle.
The italics are my own, which I wanted to emphasize because the future condition of the ENSO cycle, could be a driver for HRW wheat production for the 2013 crop. I have also included research which I have posted before but will again, because in my opinion, it bears watching.

Neutral ENSO conditions dominate Pacific

Issued on Tuesday 24 April | Product Code IDCKGEWWOO

Climate indicators across the tropical Pacific Ocean remain neutral (neither El Niño or La Niña). Climate models surveyed by the Bureau of Meteorology suggest that the tropical Pacific Ocean will remain at neutral levels at least into early winter.

All major indicators of ENSO, including cloudiness, trade winds, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific, lie well within the ENSO-neutral range. Over the past week, the SOI has returned to values not seen since April 2010.

Some, but not all, climate models note an increased risk of El Niño conditions evolving during winter or spring. Historically, about 70% of two-year La Niña events are followed by neutral or El Niño phases.

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) has limited influence on Australian rainfall from December through to April. Model outlooks currently suggest neutral conditions are the most likely scenario heading into the southern winter.

Next update expected by 8 May 2012 | print version

http://www.lbk.ars.usda.gov/WEWC/ensoag.aspx