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| Grains continue to take it on the chin, as we continue to see fund and technical trading along with some improved weather and really just a lack of a bull story to cause the funds to want to cover.
For winter wheat we are seeing moisture and a better crop here at home especially compared to a year ago. For beans, Brazil rains and forecasts continue to add immense pressure. The market just doesn’t see Brazil concerns as a major threat.
Going into the report, most seem to think the USDA’s Brazil bean crop will come in around that 155 to 156 level. Anything below that could maybe cause some excitement for bulls.
I don’t think the market is trading as low as some of the estimates from private organizations. Such as the 150’s and 149’s.
We also have CONAB out on Wednesday (Brazil’s USDA)
The market doesn’t feel there is a major threat in Brazil, the dry weather hasn’t hurt as bad as some may have thought, and that the rains are helping. Who’s to say the market is wrong? Well the market is always right.
Time will tell but I think there will be major damage done and I think the crop will get smaller. But there is a lot of guys who think these recent estimates in the 150’s will be wrong and think we will start to see the crop get larger, not smaller.
I’ve been reading a lot about the second corn crop dropping 30% to 40%, but I’ve also heard a few respectable guys say Brazil is gonna have a massive corn crop.
The biggest question is.. is this crop small enough to bump demand? Because so far we haven’t had much of any lately.
Until China starts to buy there isn’t much of a real reason for the funds to cover here unless the report surprises…
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Market commentary - Getting comfortable ahead of the report
