Feb 7 2019

   My worse fears are taking place.  Due to a multiple year drought like I thought I would only have stories to remember from cowpokes of the past.  I watched good ponds go dry and worried about running out of water. Not just a lack of grass in the summer of 2018.  This problem was ended with 20 inches or more of rain. That gave us excellent fall forage.  Hay was short in 2017 and in 18 ran about 1/3 of normal. Drought started in June which is very early for us.  Watched corn get chopped for silage/crp trash rolled up and beautiful second cutting of hay baled in the fall.  Hay supplies where feed during the summer and then a hard winter compounds the issues.  Foot of snow covered the unfrozen ground.  Extreme cold and more snow and ice.

   In the last two weeks. I have seen person begging for hay asking people to help them save his few animals.  I really believe this guy was on the up and up. I watched a neighbor help out a neighbor that had to replace seven bales of hay he used at the end of last year without pay with the agreement to replace.  Only to have the neighbor that gave up the hay in my house the next day asking to buy hay.  He had one week supply for 40 cows and I was able to find him 20 corn stock bales that were for sale @45$ last they had.  I have additional stories that read like a novel and have various self inflicted problems.

   All this is predicated by a statement I heard from a cattlemen that has a good feel around a large cattle auction barn in Central Missouri.

   "More cattle are going to be sold out of the 2018 drought area between now and the end of March 2019 due to the lack of forage supply than were sold in the summer of 2018             due to the lack of grass and water." 

   As this winter shakes out.  If anyone has feed and wants some good cows.  I would be watching the Missouri barns.  The handwriting is on the wall. 

   Local hay has sold for 180$ a bale grass.  Hay is being stolen if left by the roads.   Yesterday 60 bales listed on CL/KC @100$ did not make it 4 hours.

   I personally have adequate forage supplies.  Frozen ground and no snow would be appreciated.