I was going to type a long post, but it's a nice day here and no one likes reading those, especially when they aren't bullish. I don't like writing bearish things either, so its mutual!

I don't think there is any reason that we can't rally bigly this year. But in the short term, I am looking for a pullback in soy. Corn too, but that is only based on not filling a roll gap and requires we touch $3.39'0, either in the March by mid-February, or if not then, sometime in the May. Charts are only for soy though.



This is not a technical chart, just one illustrating our pivots. This latest failure to clear $10.15 formed a pivot to me. We need to break $9.44'4 to confirm the downtrend though, otherwise it becomes a minor wedge.



We are currently are in a wedge. Numbers are all pretty self explanatory. Support below, resistance above. Break either trend line and we need to break the prior low or high to accelerate. We had that failed breakout on January 12 to the low side. I debated whether the trend line should run off that low of $9.44'4 or were I have it. It is confirmed in that position, so I thought that would be a more relevant place. First week of February, that line moves through the $9.55 area. I have $9.54 marked, but that really represents a zone of $9.52-$9.55 that I believe has significance as a pivot area. Another oft mentioned one is just below where we are now, but I did not include that on the chart. That zone is $9.77-$9.81 and I have liked using $9.78 to represent it.



Agtalk and JC Stone's favorite tool!!! I like the forks for these minor pivots. They seem to capture it really well. Touch of the ML of the ascending one and I think the red fork will be confirmed. We would need to get to $9.99'0 Monday to retouch the UML of the red fork; not out of the realm of possibility. I doubt it does, but should it venture up there, touch, and reject; GET OUT OF THE WAY. I personally think we bleed off this week and find our way to the ML. I am drawn to that cross at $9.56'0 on February 6; 7 trade days to drop 30c sounds reasonable and the seasonal probabilities favor it.


Obviously I like somewhere in the mid $9.50's as a landing spot for a pullback. At that point see if there is any fire to this SA smoke you all are carrying on about. I don't know if there are issues there or not. I know that rain is usually not a bad thing, so I am doubtful about this Brazil problem. If it makes trouble for their corn, so what? I'll take Jon's 10mmt number, that is only 400 mb of corn, worth about 4-5 bpa on our average. 171 is not that bullish. Don't get me wrong, it's a start to changing balance sheet direction, but corn is primarily a domestic product and sadly, we need a domestic disturbance to really move it. I see you drought monitor.... But last year we put on gas in February and I was all about the Show-Me Drought emerging in Missouri. It was a minor drought here, but not really anywhere else, and that does no one any good either place.

 
We can fail to break a new low below $9.44'4, form a wedge, move back up and invalidate our pivot and go higher. But if we break our low, look to $9.17'2 and our August low and for our sakes, it holds and we don't break $9.04'4. I personally don't think we do head that low. I don't think we breach $9.44. But it bears watching. We have a pivot for now.