| Here's the latest data.. Ethanol production for the 16/17 Year was up 4.1% Domestic Blended up 1.9% In SPITE of curtailments by China.. and now Brazil implied exports are up.. 29% makes TOTAL disappearance up 4.2% This despite domestic gasoline blended DOWN 1.1%
Now margins have been pretty stale thus the grind has been.. sluggish with some producers purposefully reducing their grind rates earlier this year.. still.. the market continues to grow. Imagine what we could do with E-15 Year around. Yes EPA granted the temporary waiver for parts of the country till Sept 15th when it mostly rolls off till Next spring.. so we're getting a two week earlier start to relaxed standards.. or actually the SAME which gasoline itself has.. why so favored?
anywho.. October RBOB futures closed at $1.744 while HIGHER OCTANE October Ethanol futures closed at $1.49.. inverted roughly $0.25. September RBOB pushed out to over a $0.50 premium to Sept Ethanol.. Imagine where the driving public would be today WITHOUT CHEAPER 10% ethanol blended into the fuel supply this holiday weekend. Maybe we should tell them...??
| | | | | | | | | | Computed | | | | | | | | | | | | Weekly Production | | | | | | | number to balance | Computed | Actual | Total | Weekly bu | | Weekly US | | Week | | Blenders Input | Imports | Stocks | Capacity | Residual and exports | Exports | Exports | Ethanol | Grind | Monthly | Year | Supplied Finished | | | Ethanol k bbls/day | k bbls /day | k bbls /day | k bbls | k bbls | | k bbls /day | k bbls | Monthly | EIA | demand | | | myn bu | Motor Gasoline | | | | | | | | | | 37,936 | | | | | | | | 2.85 | conversion | | Ethanol as % of | 9/2/2016 | 998 | | 934 | | 0 | | 20,654 | 54% | | 102.9 | | 720 | | | 1036.9 | 102,952 | | | 9595 | 9.73% | | 9/9/2016 | 1004 | | 921 | | 0 | | 20,207 | 53% | | 146.9 | | 1028 | | | 1067.9 | 103,571 | | | 9406 | 9.79% | | 9/16/2016 | 981 | | 920 | | 0 | | 20,016 | 53% | | 88.3 | | 618 | | | 1008.3 | 101,198 | | | 9650 | 9.53% | | 9/23/2016 | 989 | | 907 | | 0 | | 20,578 | 54% | | 1.7 | | 12 | | | 908.7 | 102,023 | | | 8880 | 10.21% | | 9/30/2016 | 980 | | 919 | | 0 | | 20,177 | 53% | | 118.3 | | 828 | 3206 | 2,373 | 1037.3 | 101,095 | | | 9390 | 9.79% | | 10/7/2016 | 962 | | 916 | | 0 | | 19,393 | 51% | | 158.0 | | 1106 | | | 1074.0 | 99,238 | | | 9264 | 9.89% | | 10/14/2016 | 998 | | 915 | | 0 | | 19,042 | 50% | | 133.1 | | 932 | | | 1048.1 | 102,952 | | | 8798 | 10.40% | | 10/21/2016 | 991 | | 918 | | 0 | | 19,919 | 53% | | -52.3 | | -366 | | | 865.7 | 102,229 | | | 9118 | 10.07% | | 10/28/2016 | 1022 | | 922 | | 0 | | 19,739 | 52% | | 125.7 | | 880 | 2552 | 3,135 | 1047.7 | 105,427 | | | 9183 | 10.04% | | 11/4/2016 | 1002 | | 923 | | 0 | | 19,229 | 51% | | 151.9 | | 1063 | | | 1074.9 | 103,364 | | | 9213 | 10.02% | | 11/11/2016 | 1017 | | 904 | | 0 | | 18,609 | 49% | | 201.6 | | 1411 | | | 1105.6 | 104,912 | | | 9359 | 9.66% | | 11/18/2016 | 1014 | | 917 | | 0 | | 18,952 | 50% | | 48.0 | | 336 | | | 965.0 | 104,602 | | | 9024 | 10.16% | | 11/25/2016 | 1012 | | 906 | | 0 | | 18,448 | 49% | | 178.0 | | 1246 | 4056 | 2,904 | 1084.0 | 104,396 | | | 9080 | 9.98% | | 12/2/2016 | 1023 | | 872 | | 0 | | 18,530 | 49% | | 139.3 | | 975 | | | 1011.3 | 105,531 | | | 8757 | 9.96% | | 12/9/2016 | 1040 | | 894 | | 0 | | 19,076 | 50% | | 68.0 | | 476 | | | 962.0 | 107,284 | | | 8874 | 10.07% | | 12/16/2016 | 1036 | | 918 | | 0 | | 19,060 | 50% | | 120.3 | | 842 | | | 1038.3 | 106,872 | | | 9269 | 9.90% | | 12/23/2016 | 1028 | | 935 | | 0 | | 18,683 | 49% | | 146.9 | | 1028 | | | 1081.9 | 106,046 | | | 9278 | 10.08% | | 12/30/2016 | 1043 | | 845 | | 0 | | 18,678 | 49% | | 198.7 | | 1391 | 4712 | 2,334 | 1043.7 | 107,594 | | | 9278 | 9.11% | | 1/6/2017 | 1049 | | 806 | | 0 | | 20,009 | 53% | | 52.9 | | 370 | | | 858.9 | 108,213 | | | 8470 | 9.52% | | 1/13/2017 | 1054 | | 840 | | 0 | | 21,115 | 56% | | 56.0 | | 392 | | | 896.0 | 108,728 | | | 8069 | 10.41% | | 1/20/2017 | 1051 | | 833 | | 0 | | 21,728 | 57% | | 130.4 | | 913 | | | 963.4 | 108,419 | | | 8039 | 10.36% | | 1/27/2017 | 1061 | | 837 | | 0 | | 21,870 | 58% | | 203.7 | | 1426 | 3101 | 2,901 | 1040.7 | 109,451 | | | 8310 | 10.07% | | 2/3/2017 | 1055 | | 875 | | 0 | | 22,085 | 58% | | 149.3 | | 1045 | | | 1024.3 | 108,832 | | | 8941 | 9.79% | | 2/10/2017 | 1040 | | 847 | | 0 | | 22,500 | 59% | | 133.7 | | 936 | | | 980.7 | 107,284 | | | 8433 | 10.04% | | 2/17/2017 | 1034 | | 868 | | 0 | | 22,669 | 60% | | 141.9 | | 993 | | | 1009.9 | 106,665 | | | 8663 | 10.02% | | 2/24/2017 | 1034 | | 882 | | 0 | | 23,091 | 61% | | 91.7 | | 642 | 3616 | 3,349 | 973.7 | 106,665 | | | 8686 | 10.15% | | 3/3/2017 | 1022 | | 877 | | 0 | | 22,856 | 60% | | 178.6 | | 1250 | | | 1055.6 | 105,427 | | | 9268 | 9.46% | | 3/10/2017 | 1045 | | 911 | | 0 | | 22,766 | 60% | | 146.9 | | 1028 | | | 1057.9 | 107,800 | | | 9254 | 9.84% | | 3/17/2017 | 1044 | | 915 | | 0 | | 22,595 | 60% | | 153.4 | | 1074 | | | 1068.4 | 107,697 | | | 9200 | 9.95% | | 3/24/2017 | 1054 | | 911 | | 0 | | 23,257 | 61% | | 48.4 | | 339 | | | 959.4 | 108,728 | | | 9524 | 9.57% | | 3/31/2017 | 1019 | | 918 | | 0 | | 23,705 | 62% | | 37.0 | | 259 | 3950 | 3,044 | 955.0 | 105,118 | | | 9245 | 9.93% | | 4/7/2017 | 986 | | 908 | | 0 | | 22,903 | 60% | | 192.6 | | 1348 | | | 1100.6 | 101,714 | | | 9275 | 9.79% | | 4/14/2017 | 996 | | 912 | | 0 | | 23,034 | 61% | | 65.3 | | 457 | | | 977.3 | 102,745 | | | 9223 | 9.89% | | 4/21/2017 | 987 | | 932 | | 0 | | 23,269 | 61% | | 21.4 | | 150 | | | 953.4 | 101,817 | | | 9206 | 10.12% | | 4/28/2017 | 986 | | 927 | | 0 | | 23,213 | 61% | | 67.0 | | 469 | 2424 | 2,178 | 994.0 | 101,714 | | | 9156 | 10.12% | | 5/5/2017 | 1006 | | 928 | | 28 | | 23,055 | 61% | | 128.6 | | 900 | | | 1056.6 | 103,777 | | | 9408 | 9.86% | | 5/12/2017 | 1027 | | 951 | | 0 | | 23,414 | 62% | | 24.7 | | 173 | | | 975.7 | 105,943 | | | 9452 | 10.06% | | 5/19/2017 | 1010 | | 949 | | 0 | | 22,684 | 60% | | 165.3 | | 1157 | | | 1114.3 | 104,189 | | | 9704 | 9.78% | | 5/26/2017 | 1020 | | 950 | | 0 | | 22,763 | 60% | | 58.7 | | 411 | 2641 | 2,840 | 1008.7 | 105,221 | | | 9822 | 9.67% | | 6/2/2017 | 999 | | 909 | | 0 | | 21,982 | 58% | | 201.6 | | 1411 | | | 1110.6 | 103,055 | | | 9317 | 9.76% | | 6/9/2017 | 1002 | | 931 | | 0 | | 22,542 | 59% | | -9.0 | | -63 | | | 922.0 | 103,364 | | | 9269 | 10.04% | | 6/16/2017 | 990 | | 943 | | 0 | | 22,280 | 59% | | 84.4 | | 591 | | | 1027.4 | 102,126 | | | 9816 | 9.61% | | 6/23/2017 | 1015 | | 961 | | 0 | | 21,838 | 58% | | 117.1 | | 820 | | | 1078.1 | 104,705 | | | 9538 | 10.08% | | 6/30/2017 | 1014 | | 945 | | 0 | | 21,571 | 57% | | 107.1 | | 750 | 3509 | 2,210 | 1052.1 | 104,602 | | | 9705 | 9.74% | | 7/7/2017 | 1007 | | 927 | | 0 | | 21,181 | 56% | | 135.7 | | 950 | | | 1062.7 | 103,880 | | | 9786 | 9.47% | | 7/14/2017 | 1026 | | 921 | | 0 | | 22,137 | 58% | | -31.6 | | -221 | | | 889.4 | 105,840 | | | 9592 | 9.60% | | 7/21/2017 | 1012 | | 945 | | 0 | | 21,529 | 57% | | 153.9 | | 1077 | | | 1098.9 | 104,396 | | | 9821 | 9.62% | | 7/28/2017 | 1002 | | 951 | | 38 | | 20,852 | 55% | | 185.7 | | 1300 | 3106 | | 1136.7 | 103,364 | | | 9842 | 9.66% | | 8/4/2017 | 1012 | | 938 | | 0 | | 21,347 | 56% | | 3.3 | | 23 | | | 941.3 | 104,396 | | | 9797 | 9.57% | | 8/11/2017 | 1059 | | 948 | | 37 | | 21,828 | 58% | | 79.3 | | 555 | | | 1027.3 | 109,244 | | | 9522 | 9.96% | | 8/18/2017 | 1052 | | 948 | | 0 | | 21,509 | 57% | | 149.6 | | 1047 | | | 1097.6 | 108,522 | | | 9629 | 9.85% | | 8/25/2017 | 1042 | | 956 | | 0 | | 21,303 | 56% | | 115.4 | | 808 | 2433 | | 1071.4 | 107,491 | | | 9846 | 9.71% | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 16/17 MY 52 wks | 1018.3 | | 911.3 | | 2.0 | | 21259.0 | | | 108.0 | | 755.9 | 3275.5 | 2726.8 | 1019.3 | 105,046 | | | 9235.5 | 9.87% | | 15/16 MY 52 wks | 977.9 | | 894.4 | | 5.3 | | 20846.4 | | | 83.6 | | 584.9 | 2576.3 | 1733.1 | 977.9 | 100,882 | | | 9338.8 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 4,164.0 | | | 9411.0 | -1.52% | | 17 vs 16 | 4.1% | | 1.9% | | | | 20926.0 | yr ago | | 29.2% | | 29.2% | 27.1% | 57.3% | 4.2% | 4.1% | | | -1.1% | | |
Weekly production number http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=w_epooxe_yop_nus_mbbld&f=w Weekly Blenders Input.. http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=w_epooxe_yir_nus_mbbld&f=w Weekly Imports of Ethanol http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=W_EPOOXE_IM0_NUS-Z00_MBBLD&f=W Weekly Stocks number http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=W_EPOOXE_SAE_NUS_MBBL&f=W Weekly US Product Supplied of Finished Motor Gasoline http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WGFUPUS2&f=W Monthly US Exports of Ethanol http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=M_EPOOXE_EEX_NUS-Z00_MBBL&f=M Cheers. |