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Ethanol update.
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JonSCKs
Posted 9/1/2017 19:28 (#6223519)
Subject: Ethanol update.


Here's the latest data.. Ethanol production for the 16/17 Year was up 4.1%  Domestic Blended up 1.9%  In SPITE of curtailments by China.. and now Brazil implied exports are up.. 29% makes TOTAL disappearance up 4.2%  This despite domestic gasoline blended DOWN 1.1%

Now margins have been pretty stale thus the grind has been.. sluggish with some producers purposefully reducing their grind rates earlier this year.. still.. the market continues to grow.  Imagine what we could do with E-15 Year around.  Yes EPA granted the temporary waiver for parts of the country till Sept 15th when it mostly rolls off till Next spring.. so we're getting a two week earlier start to relaxed standards.. or actually the SAME which gasoline itself has.. why so favored?

anywho.. October RBOB futures closed at $1.744 while HIGHER OCTANE October Ethanol futures closed at $1.49.. inverted roughly $0.25.  September RBOB pushed out to over a $0.50 premium to Sept Ethanol.. Imagine where the driving public would be today WITHOUT CHEAPER 10% ethanol blended into the fuel supply this holiday weekend.  Maybe we should tell them...??

          Computed          
 Weekly Production      number to balanceComputedActualTotal Weekly bu  Weekly US  
Week Blenders InputImportsStocksCapacityResidual and exportsExportsExportsEthanolGrindMonthlyYearSupplied Finished 
 Ethanol k bbls/dayk bbls /dayk bbls /day k bbls k bbls k bbls /dayk bblsMonthlyEIAdemand  myn buMotor Gasoline 
        37,936       2.85conversion Ethanol as % of
9/2/2016998 934 0 20,65454% 102.9 720  1036.9102,952  95959.73% 
9/9/20161004 921 0 20,20753% 146.9 1028  1067.9103,571  94069.79% 
9/16/2016981 920 0 20,01653% 88.3 618  1008.3101,198  96509.53% 
9/23/2016989 907 0 20,57854% 1.7 12  908.7102,023  888010.21% 
9/30/2016980 919 0 20,17753% 118.3 82832062,3731037.3101,095  93909.79% 
10/7/2016962 916 0 19,39351% 158.0 1106  1074.099,238  92649.89% 
10/14/2016998 915 0 19,04250% 133.1 932  1048.1102,952  879810.40% 
10/21/2016991 918 0 19,91953% -52.3 -366  865.7102,229  911810.07% 
10/28/20161022 922 0 19,73952% 125.7 88025523,1351047.7105,427  918310.04% 
11/4/20161002 923 0 19,22951% 151.9 1063  1074.9103,364  921310.02% 
11/11/20161017 904 0 18,60949% 201.6 1411  1105.6104,912  93599.66% 
11/18/20161014 917 0 18,95250% 48.0 336  965.0104,602  902410.16% 
11/25/20161012 906 0 18,44849% 178.0 124640562,9041084.0104,396  90809.98% 
12/2/20161023 872 0 18,53049% 139.3 975  1011.3105,531  87579.96% 
12/9/20161040 894 0 19,07650% 68.0 476  962.0107,284  887410.07% 
12/16/20161036 918 0 19,06050% 120.3 842  1038.3106,872  92699.90% 
12/23/20161028 935 0 18,68349% 146.9 1028  1081.9106,046  927810.08% 
12/30/20161043 845 0 18,67849% 198.7 139147122,3341043.7107,594  92789.11% 
1/6/20171049 806 0 20,00953% 52.9 370  858.9108,213  84709.52% 
1/13/20171054 840 0 21,11556% 56.0 392  896.0108,728  806910.41% 
1/20/20171051 833 0 21,72857% 130.4 913  963.4108,419  803910.36% 
1/27/20171061 837 0 21,87058% 203.7 142631012,9011040.7109,451  831010.07% 
2/3/20171055 875 0 22,08558% 149.3 1045  1024.3108,832  89419.79% 
2/10/20171040 847 0 22,50059% 133.7 936  980.7107,284  843310.04% 
2/17/20171034 868 0 22,66960% 141.9 993  1009.9106,665  866310.02% 
2/24/20171034 882 0 23,09161% 91.7 64236163,349973.7106,665  868610.15% 
3/3/20171022 877 0 22,85660% 178.6 1250  1055.6105,427  92689.46% 
3/10/20171045 911 0 22,76660% 146.9 1028  1057.9107,800  92549.84% 
3/17/20171044 915 0 22,59560% 153.4 1074  1068.4107,697  92009.95% 
3/24/20171054 911 0 23,25761% 48.4 339  959.4108,728  95249.57% 
3/31/20171019 918 0 23,70562% 37.0 25939503,044955.0105,118  92459.93% 
4/7/2017986 908 0 22,90360% 192.6 1348  1100.6101,714  92759.79% 
4/14/2017996 912 0 23,03461% 65.3 457  977.3102,745  92239.89% 
4/21/2017987 932 0 23,26961% 21.4 150  953.4101,817  920610.12% 
4/28/2017986 927 0 23,21361% 67.0 46924242,178994.0101,714  915610.12% 
5/5/20171006 928 28 23,05561% 128.6 900  1056.6103,777  94089.86% 
5/12/20171027 951 0 23,41462% 24.7 173  975.7105,943  945210.06% 
5/19/20171010 949 0 22,68460% 165.3 1157  1114.3104,189  97049.78% 
5/26/20171020 950 0 22,76360% 58.7 41126412,8401008.7105,221  98229.67% 
6/2/2017999 909 0 21,98258% 201.6 1411  1110.6103,055  93179.76% 
6/9/20171002 931 0 22,54259% -9.0 -63  922.0103,364  926910.04% 
6/16/2017990 943 0 22,28059% 84.4 591  1027.4102,126  98169.61% 
6/23/20171015 961 0 21,83858% 117.1 820  1078.1104,705  953810.08% 
6/30/20171014 945 0 21,57157% 107.1 75035092,2101052.1104,602  97059.74% 
7/7/20171007 927 0 21,18156% 135.7 950  1062.7103,880  97869.47% 
7/14/20171026 921 0 22,13758% -31.6 -221  889.4105,840  95929.60% 
7/21/20171012 945 0 21,52957% 153.9 1077  1098.9104,396  98219.62% 
7/28/20171002 951 38 20,85255% 185.7 13003106 1136.7103,364  98429.66% 
8/4/20171012 938 0 21,34756% 3.3 23  941.3104,396  97979.57% 
8/11/20171059 948 37 21,82858% 79.3 555  1027.3109,244  95229.96% 
8/18/20171052 948 0 21,50957% 149.6 1047  1097.6108,522  96299.85% 
8/25/20171042 956 0 21,30356% 115.4 8082433 1071.4107,491  98469.71% 
                      
                      
                      
16/17 MY 52 wks1018.3 911.3 2.0 21259.0  108.0 755.93275.52726.81019.3105,046  9235.59.87% 
15/16 MY 52 wks977.9 894.4 5.3 20846.4  83.6 584.92576.31733.1977.9100,882  9338.8  
                4,164.0  9411.0-1.52% 
17 vs 164.1% 1.9%   20926.0yr ago 29.2% 29.2%27.1%57.3%4.2%4.1%  -1.1%  



Weekly production number http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=w_epooxe_yop_nus_mbbld&f=w

Weekly Blenders Input.. http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=w_epooxe_yir_nus_mbbld&f=w

Weekly Imports of Ethanol http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=W_EPOOXE_IM0_NUS-Z00_MBBLD&f=W

Weekly Stocks number http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=W_EPOOXE_SAE_NUS_MBBL&f=W

Weekly US Product Supplied of Finished Motor Gasoline http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WGFUPUS2&f=W

Monthly US Exports of Ethanol http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=M_EPOOXE_EEX_NUS-Z00_MBBL&f=M

 

Cheers. 

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