I made some calls this weekend.. first off a refresher..

AMO/PDO cycle..



You are looking at a maps of Probabilities of a bad event as influenced by the Atlantic Multidecadal and the Pacific Decadal oscillation..

AMO Negative.. especially with a positive PDO.. and chances of drought are VERY Low..

AMO Positive.. and the odds go WAY UP.. guess what.. it's positive.



Since about 2000.. so no worries.. by about 2030'ish.. we're back to GOOD!!

Now the PDO.. Negative.. and we get INCREASED ODDS of a drought here in the Southern plains while the Northern Plains.. get's good prices..

See: the Southern Plains drought of 2010.. through about 2015.. peaked for us in 2011.. but had a wider impact in 2012.

The PDO flipped from Negative.. to positive.. in around 2015..



and Viola.. here we are.  See the graphic in the upper right hand corner of the probabilities of a bad event at the start.

Which since I've lived it.. I'm about as confident of this as anything weather wise.. BUT.. I'm NOT a meterologist..  but I know a couple...

Now we're dealing in probabilities.. for us.. 2011 was described as a "heat storm".. 

Weather forecaster in 2011.. "guys what we got here is 40,000 feet of SUPER DRY AIR.. it's where COLD FRONTS GO to DIE!!"

Man.. and did it ever!!  There was just NO MOISTURE to work with.. it just literally burned it out of the atmosphere above us..

See South Dakota today.. (lifted from post above.. thanks..)



"well maybe we'll get a hurricane or something in here.."

We did finally get some rains.. and when it came.. golly like 6" in August and September of 2012.. then back to dry.. then a wet spring in 2013.. and we were ABOVE average for the year.. but 25 miles away.. they were still short by about 10".. NOT GENERAL Rains.. but if ya got one.. bring a life preserver...

Eventually the drought was erased.. for us 2014 was a pretty normal year.. while the rest of the cornbelt cranked the big one out.

If history is any guide.. this thing could be around for awhile.. AND it could come down and affect us also... 

However, the ENSO cycle is due to flip wet.. and the same office.. tried to talk to my guy but he was on vacation.. still we're "supposed" to see a wet fall.. and a more normal pattern even as early as August.. which the guy I talked to specifically included the Northern Plains..

"Yal.. they could.. should see rains..."

So...

Not overly clear.. but golly 2011 fried us pretty well.. There may be saving rains later.. but what will remain to be saved...???

Sorry.. Hope this helps.. but knowing what we're dealing with..

"I could be wrong."

but I think this is gonna leave a mark.

We got a billion bushels of wheat.. there's still some 2015 crop under tarp not far away.. and a BUNCH of 2016... 3 of the 4 elevators around me filled this year..

So we got Wheat.. but we probably will have to IMPORT HRSW so.. that may still run to the upside..

I think the Feed and Residual number in the Corn may be a little high.. so I think we really got.. 2.5'ish carry in for 17/18...

Soybeans on the other hand.. ONCE AGAIN.. USDA has OVERESTIMATED Ending carryout.. UNDERESTIMATED USAGE.. primarily exports.  We're over 100 million bushels OVER on Sales.. granted shipments may not reach that level.. but IF PRICES TAKE OFF.. what would you do?

"send the new crop then.."

So even though we got MORE BEAN ACRES.. 13 Million of the soybean Crop are in the DAKOTA's!!

and it was 105+ there today..

and probably not gonna see much releif here for.. "awhile."  For us they are saying 2 weeks.. at least.. "maybe longer.."  Even though we've had 13.5" since March.. even we're gonna suffer...

So either it changes by August.. or Beans explode.

.. that's how it looks to me.