This is a good article on the challenges of replacing reserves in this environment..

( http://seekingalpha.com/article/3936386-exxon-mobils-exploration-co... )

What This Means for Exxon Mobil and Oil

Exxon Mobil is a company that I admire. And despite writing an article last month that looked at the downside in their earnings outlook, they are one of the best operators in the business. If Exxon Mobil is struggling to find oil outside of high-cost regions, then I can guarantee you that non-OPEC producers are having the same issues. Abundant shale production at the time of rising oil prices has led to a rebalance of power in the industry. A fact that seems to go against the long term trend of higher exploration, development, and production costs. How long shale can maintain its current production rates is yet to be said, and depends on some factors outside Exxon Mobil's control.

Saudi Arabia's strategy is an explicit attack on U.S. shale, Canadian Oil Sands, and other high-cost regions around the world. The short-term effect has been to crater prices - an outcome I believe has yet to finish playing out. In the long term, the higher costs of oil production will be reflected in the oil price despite the recent cost cuts by many producers. As capital budgets decrease, wells are pushed harder, and small companies start to default, the certainty of a production cliff in 3-4 years will become stronger. In the meantime, Exxon Mobil is going to continue to underperform in earnings. 

Meanwhile Bakken production continues to fall..  ( https://www.dmr.nd.gov/oilgas/stats/historicalbakkenoilstats.pdf )

I don't believe that low Crude Prices are over.. but looks like we should have been a little more aggressive in locking in those January lows...  $.92 July HO.. not bad.   Didn't get my multi year's on.. maybe time.. Next winter..??