Formerly NE North Dakota, now NW MN | Ahead of what might be one of the more interesting meetings we've had in a while, I'm curious what everyone is thinking.
Looking across the landscape this morning, particularly FX, the markets seem to me to be hinting at a line of thinking that the FOMC will take a breather on rate increases. A few days ago I read that the Wallstreet/Vegas odds were 55% against a rate increase, up from a mere 30-ish a month ago. So we've gone from expecting an increase, to not expecting one (interestingly, in somewhat the same timeframe DX started painting what some are calling a topping formation). If we get the currently unexpected move of up %.25, is DX going to blow through 100 (to use a fun ol' phrase) like it's tied to a fencepost?
At this point, I don't even know that it means, but treasuries (particularly the 10 and 30) have both built ominous looking pendants. I don't know which way it'll break out from them, but I'm pretty sure it'll be noticed when it does.
So I'm curious- what's everyone thoughts about the FOMC meeting today?
Also, point of interest- when crude oil prices were surging back in the day, we were repeatedly told "energy prices are just transitory" and that they weren't actually inflationary. Is the same now true when energy prices are persistently low? Are they not actually deflationary in the eyes of the FOMC because they are "transitory" in nature? |
Are we set up for a FOMC shocker?
