|
Buxton ND | NO beating around bush here, I see NO reason to make any 2016 sales at this time and price. Depends on the crop why sell 8-10 months ahead at a loss ? Ya if you got the banker breathing your neck,,, IF he did not TELL YOU to sell @ 6-7 corn TELL HIM TO STUFF IF NOW***** He banks/You farm is my rule, , yet rules do need to be broke from time to time and ya sometimes you gotta kiss their backside.
Just some targets orders to toss out here on ZCZ16 currently 3.85, contract high 5.60/low 3.75
3.972, magic number $4, a favorite number
4.176 chart #
4.252 chart # gap @ 4.26
4.446 just off last summer highs.
4.70ish roughly 50% RT of contract high to low.
4.972 favor number, these last 2 do look like pipe line dreams right now.
What percent you may or may not sell needs to be set by YOU for YOUR needs on YOUR farm, I CAN NOT DO THAT and neither can any broker.
If your "Binless Barney" that sells off the combine these numbers mean more to you then the guy that can store 150% of his APH.
If your the 150% of the APH guy if you choice you can use the bins,, play the carry and sell, forward contract, hedge/HTA's to ZCH or ZCN17
Selling the carry has been talking about for months in here,,, the high on ZCN16 was 4.71 this past summer, this leaves lots of time to play "bid my basis" game. This selling the carry and playing the basis is OLD SCHOOL marketing back in day,,, back in the tough years.....
Then we have these,
Pro advantage
Pro pricing plus.
Pro Joe
Moe Joe
Fancy stuff as Maize calls them.
My term is fancy dancy marketing.
These are and HAVE BEEN pushed since last fall. At times the names have to chanced from year to year. *****These HAVE BEEN working very well*****
Locally these marketing plans cost YOU a dime..... I have checked the dime part out.
So you sell X bushels for X price and if the market goes up some more, sell X amount MORE bushels at a given price.
OR sell me 10k old crop @ 3.60 right now and I'll give you $4 ZCZ new crop on 10k MORE
There SELLING call options in the forward months VERY CHEAP CALLS. In some case there going out to ZCN17 and selling VERY CHEAP CALL.
SO "their" you fill in the name,,, selling options on YOUR behalf on YOUR bushels to lock in YOUR grain coming into THEIR ELEVATORS. This HAS and IS happening in Ag land. This is a CARBON COPY of what happened with HTA mess of 1996. Same deal this program had been working like a charm the prior few years and my words above,
*****These HAVE BEEN working very well*****
YAA, if prices stay flatish for the next 1 to 1.5 years they'll work great.
Some type of a major weather event rally tossed in the mix SOMEONE WILL BE MARGINING THOSE CALLS.
I would strongly advise reading the fine fine print of these contacts on grains being marketed by someone else on YOUR BUSHELS. YOU ask the question and YOU get some straight 8 forward answers as to WHO is responsible for margin calls. It maybe be wise to chat with your states grain buyers licensing and bonding office,,, in ND its the PSC.
Back when I first started hedging in the mid 80's, I was given a very firm warning by my older broker (experienced broker) on NOT SELLING options.
Now maybe read thru this post again thinking back one year and how this would have worked with YOUR 2015 crop.
Did you have to sign a DP- Delayed pricing contract/s ?
Did you want to sign that contract/s ?
Was it FREE DP or did it cost your a nickel or dime ?
You sitting on grains paying a nickle a month storage costs ?
How did this work with your bookkeeper/taxmen/banker ?
These are questions only YOU can answer on YOUR farm.
A one size fits all marketing plan does not work, marketing guys or brokers can not answer YOUR questions on YOUR farm.
Ya that was long, its an important subject on YOUR FARM.
| |
|
The 2016 Dice
