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Ethanol update
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JonSCKs
Posted 12/9/2015 18:31 (#4949485)
Subject: Ethanol update


updated the numbers today.. cut the table down to save bandwidth.  It was again a pretty strong week on the grind.  The third largest ever on the grind up 3.5% Crop year to date vs last year.  The domestic blend is up 2.2% year to date.

The computed exports are still a little nebulous.. For whatever reason the reported number runs about 72% of the computed number to balance the table.  This puts us on pace to hit around 847 myn gallons.. but we are gaining here at the end.  The Stocks number that jumps around quite a bit will play with that.  I thunked that last week the 1.008 myn number might have been an aberration.. but to come back close to it this week.. adds credibility.

Given the margin pressure in the industry this is impressive.

 

          Computed          
 Weekly Production      number to balanceComputedActualTotal Weekly bu  Weekly US  
Week Blenders InputImportsStocksCapacityResidual and exportsExportsExportsEthanolGrindMonthlyYearSupplied Finished 
 Ethanol k bbls/dayk bbls /dayk bbls /day k bbls k bbls k bbls /dayk bblsMonthlyEIAdemand  myn buMotor Gasoline 
        37,936       2.78conversion5,005 Ethanol as % of

9/4/2015958 896 0 18,64249% 113.4 794  1009.4101,314  90179.94%
9/11/2015961 878 0 18,29148% 133.1 932  1011.1101,631  89839.77%
9/18/2015938 892 44 18,90050% 3.0 21  895.099,199  92159.68%
9/25/2015943 881 0 18,78250% 78.9 5522,2991,438959.999,727  90219.77%
10/2/2015950 882 17 18,81250% 80.7 565  962.7100,468  89589.85%
10/9/2015949 887 0 18,95650% 41.4 290  928.4100,362  91379.71%
10/16/2015951 897 0 18,87250% 66.0 462  963.0100,573  91579.80%
10/23/2015944 915 0 18,27348% 114.6 802  1029.699,833  93439.79%
10/30/2015969 884 10 18,77449% 23.4 1642,283 907.4102,477  91849.63%
11/6/2015982 868 26 18,85450% 128.6 900  996.6103,852  93889.25%
11/13/2015975 870 0 19,24951% 48.6 340  918.6103,112  90549.61%
11/20/20151008 885 0 19,62752% 69.0 483  954.0106,601  89219.92%
11/27/2015956 876 36 19,99753% 63.1 4422,165 939.1101,102  92819.44%
12/4/2015993 839 0 19,82952% 178.0 1246  1017.0105,015  94208.91%
             2,855       
15 to date962.6 882.1 9.5 18990  82 5712400??964101,805  9128 
14 to date930.3 863.1 0.2 17897  67 4672210180593098,383  8924 
                3421.9    
15 vs 143.5% 2.2%   6.1%  22.4% 22.4%8.6%??3.7%3.5%  2.3% 
   42953.0   Calendar Yr: 3948.1 27637.0 14908.0      
   12628.2      gallons: 1160.7532,84423,64972.0%     
              626.136      
2015 avg958.2 876.6          847.0pace101,333    
 14.69 13.44          0.847      
                     

Weekly production number http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=w_epooxe_yop_nus_mbbld&f=w

Weekly Blenders Input.. http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=w_epooxe_yir_nus_mbbld&f=w

Weekly Imports of Ethanol http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=W_EPOOXE_IM0_NUS-Z00_MBBLD&f=W

Weekly Stocks number http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=W_EPOOXE_SAE_NUS_MBBL&f=W

Weekly US Product Supplied of Finished Motor Gasoline http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WGFUPUS2&f=W

Monthly US Exports of Ethanol http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=M_EPOOXE_EEX_NUS-Z00_MBBL&f=M

Cheers.

 

 

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