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Poll on Over or Under on Pre-Report Corn Estimates:
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Citi Farms
Posted 9/10/2014 12:13 (#4066296)
Subject: Poll on Over or Under on Pre-Report Corn Estimates:


I saw that the average pre-report estimate for corn in the 9-11 report is at 14.3 billion bushel and a 2.0 billion ending 2014/2015 carryout here in the U.S. and I will take the under or I feel that the production and carryout level will be lower than these figures.

No need for would have, could have or should have comments. This is a friendly poll.

SAT, you may find one of my main reasons for the under interesting. The non-commercial traders were holding a net long futures and options (combined) position as of 9-2 of 11,600 and this was up 14,000 contracts from a small net short position the previous week. Many of these traders have boots on the ground and if they felt a 300 million increase in the crop size and a roughly 200 million increase in carryout was coming wouldn't you expect them to be selling not buying into the 9-2 timeframe?

What is your guess?
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