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| It looks to me like the synthetic value of MPLS march is somewhere near $17.50...down from the last calculation.
I believe soybeans have priced in a good acreage gain translating that by spring, corn may again become the price leader. I still like Nov beans, but want to accumulate Dec08 or Mar09 on breaks with the eventual goal of legging into long corn/short deferred wheat.
One of my contacts attended the NCIC conf. in Reno & paints a negative picture for beef cattle. Using Missouri as an example, he indicated one observer worried the state could lose 400,000 cows over the next two years as some grazing land is converted to row crop, the particular pressure coming at this moment from absentee landowners wanting a higher per acre return. Of course, there will be survivors but we are witnessing, in this ONE MORE TIME period of change, adjustments between allocating acres for crops and benchmark price levels for these crops.
Should this liquidation occur, cattle may face some contra-seasonal moves with the result of record high prices down the road.
The mpls wheat market is now a matter of who blinks first.
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Early Thoughts.
