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Starbuck Manitoba Canada | We have come down close to the long term (monthly) trend line in corn and beans, but have not broken it. Until we do we are in still in a long term bull market. No ifs, ands, or buts.
See Blu's monthly corn chart below. We came close to hitting the trend line and I feel we will test the lows one more time. I actually feel we will hit a low of $4.34 on Sept corn. I arrived at this price by taking the average of highs starting in 07-10 and eliminating the 08 high. What was once resistance is now support idea! It is interesting that Blu has a chart on corn with the same horizontal line around the $4.34 mark.
Beans have also come close to the monthly trend line at $12.43. They may try to retest the lows but will most likely not reach it, as everyone that missed the chance to go long will want to buy above the old lows.
I do not think this market will roar to the upside, rather a back and fill type of rally peaking in March-June time frame. The thought of a black swan type event where we wake up one morning and fine that Asia has purchased an enormous amount of grain may in fact happen. I do not think demand has disappeared as many have stated.
I would also caution that this may be our last kick at the cat for high prices and that one year from now things may/will look a lot different.
You have to take my prediction with a grain of salt as 6 months ago I thought we would hold much higher than this due to dryness. I did watch Dr. Martin's 45 minute video (recorded in January) posted on here. He predicted late planting due to a cool wet spring, and heat and dryness to finnish up the crop. Not to far off in my opinion.
Some on here have mentioned the exact opposite movement in price compared to last year. The highs were hit around this time frame (which I may add was my call) so maybe the lows are being hit now.
Enjoy the rest of your summer. Look at the bright side, you could always get a job.
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We are still in a long term "BULL MARKET"
