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| I have been a long time bull in wheat & beans & initially got into corn late last august & during sept. no one wanted to own corn then, now everyone likes corn
I lightened up half the load last night....and have decided to clear the deck shortly after the open this morning. At the market.
Everyone is beginning to rehash the same news...these reports late next week are important. My work in corn still suggests USDA has overestimated gasahol usuage for the first quarter....Quite frankly, with what I see as a potential carry out of old crop corn, corn does not deserve the current price level.
Everyone is excited about new money coming in, okay..then what?
I got into these markets for a specific set of reasons...it was a pleasant surprise to see all time highs last night, but that was not my expectation when I originally entered this soybean market well over a year ago.
I've had an unbelievable hot hand for 18 months...time to stand aside for awhile and let the clouds clear. I had planned to stand on my remaining wheat contract until march 1, but am just of the opinion 'enough is enough.'
As i go down my list of variables...we have good weather in Brazil, questionable weather in Argentina....the Chinese have bot a lot of beans, but they are also, historically, traders and could switch origins on soybeans to SA....In my opinion, my way of analysis..this market needs a GOOD SHAKEOUT--I can wait for a technical signal...but a lot of folks are waiting for that and don't like that crowd at the exit when that happens...so...it is the sidelines for me for awhile. | |
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Rational Thinking-Maybe
