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| Back when this site first started I asked about what the farm would look like in the future and have asked/polled every so often and pretty much got the same answers.
1. It will all be corporate: wrong - while incorporation will be used as a business tool, the typical corporation is looking for 20% on equity and farming only sees that once in a while and we seem to be chasing that number to zero or under 'to just be competitive'.
2. Mega farms will take over: At least the magazines think so and all too often today's guy who has it all right is pumping gas all too quickly (the magazine effect is strong). Our unemployment rate has made better folks available for relatively low wage so it's not just hiring 50 tavern trolls so it might work a little better these days (until welfare gets to $20/hr). At this point with so much competition for ground the cost to grow to 'mega' means throwing around that 'I only need to make $5/acre' phrase when you can't guess your gross within $50 - this model only makes good business for bankruptcy lawyers. As far as I'm concerned folks getting into this business model are doing for ego only and while it's a free country it's not much of a business plan.
Since 1 and 2 are not getting much traction I thought of what would make a difference going forward in determining whether we consolidate more or start farming patches with hand hoes. Note: I'm not saying farms that grow over time with lots of management capable people won't be part of the future, but that takes time, patience and sacrifice - doesn't make for good magazine articles.
A. Who will want to manage it: Farming is still work outside and not always in nice conditions. There are lots of frustrations and to my thinking folks do it more because they are called to do rather than it being a business opportunity. The question is whether or not the number folks called/wanting to farm increases or decreases. With high crop prices, operations with lots of owned land can pay big salaries to attract folks and there are plenty of folks getting in on the bounty without having gone through the struggles - will these folks stay in or drop it like a hot potato?
B. How much can a guy manage: This is has been steadily notching up, but making farming into a video game that the 'manager' watches from his office on a monitor isn't really the big move forward the marketing guys would have you believe. The job still depends on good people doing a good job where the job really has to be done right the first time. Technology will help, possibly with robotic tractor/planter units, robotic on the fly soil test/fertilizer units, etc. so less folks in the field are required. Of course mistakes get multiplied pretty quickly that way - the robot might not call back and say 'hey this field isn't working the way it should'.
C. Technology:
I. Getting the work done:
Especially not that there is money in farming there are plenty of folks trying to market technologies and techniques from other industries (where there are not lots of sales btw) to farmers with the promise of a whole new world. Things like planning on running 24/7 is fine in a factory setting where the job and responsibility is whittled down to the minimum so the potential of continued success is much greater - it takes more people to do simple operations rather than over working a few people. The relative inefficiency of more people is made up for in volume. It's also made possible by having relatively few variables to control. While it's possible in farming, it's not the same set of circumstances - lots more variables without the luxury of being able to spread out the responsibility (can only get one guy in a tractor). Anyway, farming is still a job where one guy/gal's efforts or lack there of make a big difference. So far the best tech I have to a better job is a better planter monitor like the 20/20 - the problem is it slows things down because it catches more problems and you have to stop, get off the tractor and fix the problem. It might make me a better farmer/more money but it doesn't help me manage more acres effectively.
It's no doubt that plenty of guys whose family/help have moved off the farm that have found they can still effectively manage their acres with very large planters and combines and with not much help. Part of this is history with their farm and their years of experience - problems tend be expected/known and can be dealt with quicker. Does this mean you can just drop a guy on 2500 acres with a 24 row planter and 12 row combine and make it work with a little fall help? Maybe, but I don't think it's a slam dunk.
II. Agronomics: Perennial plants that only require planting every 4 years and just need fertilizer?
Super high yielding plants - the ability to grow on 500 acres what usually takes 2000. It might take the luster off mega farming since fewer acres are required.
Will 'test tube steaks' make animal husbandry just something hippies do? There will need to be a 'food source' for the frankensteak, but maybe much less since it doesn't have to feed a whole animal.
Will agronomy stop mattering because we all subscribe to Lash and rather than burn down we get bailed out by the government and just continue farming relatively poorly.
Note on B and C: Management in farming is based on a hands on approach since there just isn't a way to trouble shoot from a desk - Ken Ferry, like him or not, preaches management with an ax and knife walking through fields - and it needs to be the manager not the lacky. I see this as a putting in a ceiling to manageable acres. To grow you need more management capable people (successful larger operations almost always are this way). However, management could get redefined if technology and the market made it so - I have no idea what this would look like, but I leave it open as a possibility.
D. Outside factors: Global warming/cooling crowd gets it's way and fossil fuels go away (they probably don't come from fossils though), Market forces are curtailed by the government and farming gets socialized and rules and regulations define farming into a narrow business (ie. livestock only raised for the politicians, lots of wheat for gruel).
Given a business friendly administration eventually gets in power (current one could change - probably not) I think farming will go on pretty much like it is - a smattering of guys doing it as a hobby, a bunch of small guys like me with either off farm work or livestock, larger established farms and always the high flyer who takes down 6 businesses when he crashes. The question is will/can the status quo continue with the current government direction and how much will technology and outside factors affect how we farm?
that was too long | |
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The way forward......
