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| Stocks are down and acres weren't more than expected. Exports were very good.
Here's the deal maker or breaker depending on how you view it. Trend line yields are going to be very hard to achieve because so many of the extra acres are coming from fringe areas like the Dakotas where over an extra 1.3 million acres are coming from. Also extra c/c acres will drag down yields.
Trend line yield is said to be 162.5 to 163 bu/acre. Consider that we've only done that 1 time before. Over the last 6 growing seasons we reached that figure in 09, but the next highest yield is 153.9 in 08. The other 4 seasons were below that figure, so reaching 163 is gonna be tough considering all the acres that won't be in the heart of the cornbelt. Again the last 6 seasons have had an average yield of 153.2, and the gov't thinks we can do 163, chances aren't that good. | |
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Mizzou is smilin today, as am I
