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| Grain markets are pricing in a negative USDA report tomorrow where we are expected to see record yields and massive carryouts.
Soybeans take it on the chin with these expectations along with a fall out in bean oil. While wheat traded higher on the news that several regions in Russia declared for a state of emergency due to frost damage to their crops.
This report is ”supposed” to be negative. But a lot of this bearishness is already being built into these markets.
Big money is just positioning themselves ahead of this report because is supposed to say 2.2 billion corn carryout and 400 million bean carryout for next year along with record yields.
A lot of this is old news. There is nothing the USDA is going to say tomorrow that’s going to send us straight down or straight up.
We will likely get bearish numbers, but it is expected. The market has already priced this in.
After this report I see us trading higher. Often times the markets will do exactly the opposite of what they did before the report.
Even if the numbers are somewhat negative, I could see us shaking it off. Especially come Monday or Tuesday.
Corn is still near the top end of its range. The soybean chart isn’t broken. Yes we could still dip lower, but by next week I see the fund’s continuing to want to cover.
The charts say buy buy buy and the funds are underwater now with prices hitting their highest levels in months.
The weather forecasts show a 49% chance do hot/dry in June-July-Aug and a 70% chance in July-Aug-Sep. That won’t lead to a record crop..
We had all of this rain. When we get this crop in the ground and all of the sudden the rain shuts off all summer, you don’t raise good crops when you have to mud them in and run into compaction problems.
The USDA is starting at a yield that we have never even been close to reaching….
Listen to todays audio where we go over some things we could see in this USDA report and how to be prepared for marketing opportunities
Listen Here: https://txt.so/izpW74 | |
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USDA tomorrow. Bearish numbers already priced in? - Market comments
