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| Really the question I asked was about getting people thinking including me relative to what the market was thinking ..and/or about to do and to a little degree, I had grown a bit worn out from the blathering about market movement and personal expertise and attempted to inject some marketing reality into the weeks market analysis. The spreads behavior was suggesting no interest in making delivery and continued to behave in that fashion to the point it inverted by 4ish cents of so. To date I think there has been less than 50 contracts in total 'Delivered " against the CN 26. That suggests people have better things to do with the grain they own in some cash market. At the same time basis in general was improving as commercials and facility owners wanted to "harvest The dime N /U carry coming into FND...Keeping in mind all this " cash " related activity was occurring after a 70 cents break that was 2-3 week ahead of generally accepted market timing. The smell to me was higher flat prices around the corner. I didn't say that outright.
I had responded to a Post regarding the Guarantee of 5$ corn on 6/25. The N/U was again 10 ish carry. This post was really the precursor for my CN/CU post on July 10.
https://talk.newagtalk.com/forums/thread-view.asp?tid=1241175&mid=11...
I will add one additional item. A hedged cash long wants wide spreads. He wants to capture the carry and print that revenue on his P/L. The magic question for that hedged long is when to roll...so ill make this up but it will be close...Full Carry CN/CU probably 12 cents depending on if your long cash or have to borrow cash to finance the grain you have paid for. The risk reward at 10 was pretty minimal and most "good" traders would have done the roll and moved on...for now...OR they are not long the basis (owning cash bushels) and therefor had no futures to roll unless just spec trade. Interesting though that even at +4 essentially no deliveries. and the N kinda went away in a peaceful manner. Had someone had the killer instinct, I suspect they could have ran the spread hard enough (inverted)to find the bushels...but again, not really in the second purchasers best interest to do that.
Total corn stox in deliverable position on 7/1 was just over 1B bu with ~750M of which "could be/or is eligible" for delivery....Suggesting the basis length in commercial hands exists.
Edited by Rod@night 7/14/2026 16:41
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Rod@night
