There was a time.. I had more faith in Dick Cheney.. et all..  I subscribed more to the idea.. of the day..

Short of riding a donkey.. the only way for transportation.. is gasoline refined from Crude Oil from the Middle East (through the Straits of Hormuz) burned in an ICE engine.. possibly supplemented with.. enhanced.. with ethanol.

At the time the US produced 5.. 6 million bbls a day.. and “high” crude prices were something north of $50/bbls.

Since then.. 8 or 9 year war in Iraq.. Crude to $130.. The 08 Crash.. Corn was $3.. went to $5.. then back to $3.

Obama was elected.. “Iraq was a mistake”. Crude stays at $100.. Obama.. “So.. I don’t care.. “

And we drill/fracked our way out of it.. took awhile.. but by 2014.. Crude crashed.. so much that in 2019.. ??  It went negative.. on the board of trade.. Congress didn’t fill the Reserves then.. (ooof dah) so can they get anything right?

But we’re still living off that spike..surge in production.. which Trump is taking credit for.. Yal.. whatever..

Lesson.. Markets work.. if given enough time.. the question is can you survive them.

Here we go again.. A driller stated.. “well we’re looking at the back end.. $70 crude.. by the time we get geared up.. meh.  We’re still licking our wounds from the last boom bust cycle..”

There are many places on the planet we can drill/frack.. South America.. etc.. and irregardless of the trends you can buy an EV.. especially if you live in California.. $7 gasoline anyone?  And the markets will figure it out..we may not like it.. but it will.

Were already seeing gasoline demand fall.. before this spike.. so.. we may NEED E15.. or E 30 some day just to move what we move now at E 10.. that won’t happen tomorrow .. but go build a 100 million gallon ethanol plant.. and find out I guess.

In order to incentivize that.. you need cheap.. feedstocks to feed it.. lucky us.. even though we’re in a slightly dry period for now.. the super El Niño building.. says.. someone’s gonna be wet this summer.. maybe??  Even us..

So we got a shot to expand.. maybe even build.. before things change/respond..

Thats the challenge.  Imho.

Wayne Gretzky.. “I don’t skate to where the puck is.. I skate to where it’s GOING.” 

the world wide energy complex is a wee bit more complex than hockey.. but the same principle applies..  all I’m sayin.

 

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