I’m not sure this subject is worthy of its own thread.. but I didn’t want to hijacker another so..

Sal has an update on shipping which I believe is good..

https://youtu.be/NSLce_-GBAA?si=p7qTztezzYUTZVx- 

I’ve got a couple “reflections” which may not seem related.. but here goes..

On acreage and stocks.. our part of the (southern) plains had above average rainfall (finally) last year.. and probably contributed to the late surge in corn acres.. Kansas the land of “instant” acreage.. “just add water” so when it rains.. “heck.. go for it.”  Fallow ground goes to Corn instead of Sorghum.. possibly wheat.. etc.. and rotations get sped up.. “stubble back” or planting a crop vs fallow.. after a previous harvest.. It takes a lot of rain to make a Western Ks farmer complain about “too much” but some lucky spots got weekly moisture last year with impressive “dryland” yields.

What could be considered “exceptional” here for yields.. 100.. 125.. 150.. 180 etc.. probably won’t in the Corn belt.. but when you consider that a 10,000 acre farm couldn’t grow tumbleweeds the previous three years.. then busts 150 bu corn.. then you get the picture.  And that probably occurred.. and is contributing to the slide in Corn basis etc..  And there’s a fair number of those sized operations which probably did that.. and no insurance wasn’t a consideration.. one of my neighbors.. actually a couple..  doesn’t buy crop insurance.. “cheaper to self insure” okay.. if you can do it.

That said.. NASS.. in my estimation could still be too high on last years Corn yield.. 150.. not 180 bu “instant” acres.. (from these parts..) so that may still be a factor.. and since it worked last year.. heck.. try it again.. which is why Kansas is one of the few states which saw a bump in projected acres.. 300k if I recall.. however, it’s coming from Sorghum.. which given the even worse basis there.. makes sense.

2026 May dial up snake eyes on Corn.. and China could come loading the boats for Sorghum.. lol.. is how this could.. probably.. go.. so there’s that.

Second.. it does sound encouraging about the EPA guidance.. forcing 70% of waived gallons to be made up.. (should be 100% but.. better than zero)  And at least we have the grain stocks to meet increased demand from biofuels.  In fact we probably still have more bushels vs capacity to convert.. but maybe these margins will spur development.

When I have more time I’d weigh in on the ethanol debate.. a few years ago.. I was Pro ICE engine petrol vs another poster who argued EVs we’re gonna take demand..

Now.. I’ll acknowledge.. even my conservation more right wing then moi.. neighbors.. family.. Love their EVs.. cheaper.. simpler.. fun to drive.. etc.  So.. “okay” market is going to ADD more EVs.. and less ICE going forward.. especially with this Petro price shock.  Electricity is stranded here.. we need more transmission lines across states who are saying.. “over our dead bodies” so the coming additional wind and Solar may (or not?) keep electricity rates in check.. electric pivots ran about half the cost of diesel last year.. and everyone wants to convert more this year..saving maybe $10 k per pivot.

So.. a “no brainer.”  If you have access to electricity.

The US is the least impacted by Hormuz with Shale Petroleum and Natural Gas.. which has actually fallen.. due to warmer temperatures here in the US.. leading to WINDFALL, WAR PROFITS for domestic fertilizer manufacturers.. now do they spend a couple billion to add capacity.. does Trumps DOJ convict some of collusion.. or tarriff (not really but Trump speak..) tax the war profits???

buying $3 / mcf natty and selling in a.. $12 market of Urea is making Bank.. just sayin.

Flip side.. Sal above points out how much it sucks to farm in Australia.. the land of now $8 or $9 diesel fuel (or California??).  And covers some of the various reasons for why that is.. and whether others.. such as the gulf of US can assist.. what does that do to diesel prices here?  Probably not enough shipping capacity to move what’s needed.. does this hurt ethanol exports?  Or enhance them??

Given time the markets will adjust.. maybe Trumps plan to pause on forcing the straits open.. aint such a bad idea.. “We can suffer this pain better than the rest of y’all.”  China.. Asia.. Europe.. kind of a Dick move.. but.. is what it is.

Meanwhile fracking in other areas of the globe could be enhanced plus alternatives to getting products out of the Middle East..

”It’s a bold plan Cotton.. let’s see how it works out for them” Dodgeball.

So.. it might.. or not.

I guess we’ll find out.  I still think some of these issues.. fertilizer.. Diesel fuel.. may have a ways to run.. Personally I think Grains may lag because of the 17 billion bu crop last year.. but given weather.. or energy prices.. maybe it catches up?  Or.. not??

anywho.. later.

edit to correct spellchecker.

jmho.