The U.S. now relies on imports for nearly 90% of its orange juice supply as of the 2024/25 season. Domestic production has plummeted to record lows, primarily due to citrus greening disease and extreme weather in Florida - both related to climate effects. 

Supply Breakdown (2024–2025)

South American and North American imports dominate the remaining supply, with two countries accounting for 95% of all U.S. orange juice imports: 

Brazil (South America): The primary source, providing approximately 53–65% of all orange juice consumed in the U.S.. In 2025, the U.S. imported roughly $1.39 billion worth of fruit juice from Brazil.

Mexico (North America): The second-largest source, accounting for nearly 30% of U.S. imports. Mexico's exports to the U.S. are favored by zero tariffs under the USMCA trade agreement.

United States (Domestic): Domestic production now represents only about 10–20% of total availability. Florida's 2024/25 harvest was forecast at a record low of 80,000 tons, down 28% from the previous year. 

Other Global Suppliers:

While Brazil and Mexico are the main players, the U.S. also imports smaller quantities from other regions to supplement the shortfall: 

Turkey: $367 million in total fruit juice imports (2025).

Thailand: $353 million in total fruit juice imports (2025).

Minor Sources: Small amounts of specialized or frozen concentrate come from Egypt, South Africa, Argentina, and Vietnam.

Tariffs Effects:

The effect of tariffs on imported orange juice (OJ) is currently marked by high volatility due to new trade policies enacted in 2025. While many Brazilian goods faced a 50% total tariff starting in August 2025, orange juice was eventually exempted from this massive hike by the Trump administration. 

Despite this specific exemption, several distinct tariff effects remain in place for the 2025/26 season:

Current Tariff Rates (2025–2026)

Brazil (Main Supplier): Base Tariff: Continues to face a fixed duty of $415 per ton on frozen concentrated orange juice (FCOJ). Surcharge: Still subject to a 10% tariff imposed in early 2025. Exemption: Sourced OJ was specifically excluded from the 40% additional "emergency" tariff that would have brought the total to 50%.

Mexico: USMCA Advantage: Remains largely tariff-exempt for USMCA-compliant juice, giving it a significant price advantage over Brazilian imports. Potential 25% Rate: A broader 25% tariff on all Mexican goods was confirmed in early 2025, though its application to OJ specifically has seen conflicting exemptions.