|
North Dakota | I will preface the following by stating I farm in the bunghole of soybean basis so your numbers will most likely vary drastically.
Divided my 2025 production into 5 lots held in owned storage. No pre harvest soybean sales as I was very dry at 2 crucial times of the year (June/August). Caught an early September rain that I believe helped with test weight.
Ended with yields at 42 bushel/acre. Satisfied considering conditions. Around APH. These are prices delivered to elevator not future prices. Low price during harvest was $8.37. Sold 1st lot at $9.50 December. Second lot at 9.63 cash. Third lot at $10.12 December which was a bid I placed that hit. Hoping for around $10.25 for fourth lot which will be $10.00 average. Play with fifth lot or not?With my balance sheet that will provide a slight profit. Better if I get more lean/mean and do my part.
I have not and will never figure in any form of government payments into the mix. That will just be icing on the cake IF it occurs. I try to get most of my soybean sales done post harvest but before PNW shipments fall apart. Historically may keep a lot or two to play with until spring in case of a South American crop snafu but this looks less and less likely as the years go by with their increased production and China’s decreasing participation in sourcing US soybeans.
Don’t know if this is right or wrong. Just how I have morphed into doing things over the last 35+ years of farming. Is different for different crops as they have different marketing windows and production timeframes and vary with respect to yields and forward contracting(Oats, HRSW, Canola, Flax). Of course cash flow plays its part.
A little more aggressive this year than the last few. Forward contracted more canola and started HRSW sales a little earlier. Don’t expect to see many opportunities on the wheat front so will have to be on top of any and all blips that occur.
So what is your strategy? Part of the reason I decided to make more sales early is seeing the basis narrow as of late. Not nearly as much delivered as was anticipated. Also I think when it sinks in that China is exiting stage left there will be less reward for holding on.
Also what is your strategy for 2026 soybean sales?
Edited for additional content.
Edited by north1 10/31/2025 19:59
| |
|
My soybean strategy/or lack thereof
