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S Illinois | Nothing with only 12MMT. USDA exported 1.7bb in 23/24, 1.875 last year and in the Sept WASDE it was estimated at 1.685. Last year China took 22.5MMT(800mb) There was some substitution baked into the WASDE with the assumption of that other countries will come to the US as Brazil was tapped out of exportable supply. I have a very hard time seeing exports changing much on the balance sheet from around that 1.7MMT number. What it does do is remove the chance of really ballooning US ending stocks and this is what the market is reacting to. So now the market knows the base demand is there and we return to guessing what final production is for the demand that became a little clearer. | |
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What does 12MMT do to the US balance sheet at 53 nat yield?
